US Fed Meeting 2026 Highlight: US stocks end mixed after Powell's speech, Fed move to hold rate for 3rd straight meeting

Updates on this blog has ended. Read all stock market news here

Bitcoin prices traded below $76,000 on Thursday, April 30, falling for the second day in a row following the US Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates. The cryptocurrency was trading at $75,521.26, down 2.18% during the last 24 hours.

Ethereum prices fell 3.81% in the last 24 hours, trading near the $2,251 mark. Among the top altcoins, XRP, BNB, Solana, Hyperliquid, and Cardano fell up to 1%, while Tron and Dogecoin rose 0.6% and 5%, respectively. Read here

The path to rate cuts is not clean anymore. A few months back, markets were almost convinced cuts were around the corner. Today, it feels more like the Fed is saying, ‘we’ll wait, we’ll watch, and we’re in no hurry,’ noted Viram Shah, Founder & CEO, Vested Finance.

For investors, he believes this is that phase where nothing feels decisive. Growth is holding up, the economy is still resilient, but inflation is not fully behaving either. And in these phases, markets usually don’t move in straight lines.

“You get volatility, you get mixed signals, and you get a lot of second-guessing. That’s exactly where staying diversified and thinking long-term matters the most,” Shah added.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% reflects a central bank firmly in ‘wait-and-watch’ mode, as inflation remains stubbornly above its 2% target despite a resilient labor market. This cautious pause signals that rate cuts are not on the immediate horizon, said Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct.

For Indian equity markets, the pause provides measured relief, easing FPI outflow pressure, supporting rupee stability, and keeping import costs in check. However, with global rate cuts delayed, markets may stay range-bound in the near term. India’s structural growth story remains strong. Medium-term investors should focus on domestic-demand-driven sectors with earnings visibility. The RBI’s rate trajectory and geopolitical developments will be the true guides for the Nifty and Sensex going forward.

Rupee depreciates 0.2% to open at 95.02 against US dollar amid surge in crude oil prices, hawkish US Fed.

Bond markets are factoring in a risk premium of the anticipated inflationary surge as benchmark yields hardened ~9 bps to 4.43%. We continue to believe that access to the Strait of Hormuz will be crucial for EM economies including India, although the government has been vocal on not passing on the burden of elevated crude oil prices; a section of the market is anticipating price hike post the state elections. On the monetary policy front, although we don’t expect RBI to hike policy rates in the near term, a hawkish tilt by the Fed in upcoming months would exert pressure on the INR, said Hitesh Suvarna, Economist at JM Financial.

The yen extended its slide beyond 160 per dollar to its weakest mark this year. Following the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting Wednesday, the currency fell about 0.5% to 160.47 per dollar, its weakest level since mid-2024. It pared some of its losses on Thursday, climbing as much as 0.2% to 160.08 against the greenback.

The Fed’s messaging has certainly turned more hawkish, and even with a new incoming Chair, it is unlikely that the Fed will move on rates until there is greater clarity on the Middle East conflict (and evidence that tariff effects are fading), said Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist at Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

A hawkish Fed adds to the RBI’s policy constraints ahead, with the Middle East crisis persisting longer than expected. The RBI’s options to stabilize INR remain limited (with some of the regulatory measures aimed at containing INR depreciation also being rolled back), especially with FPI flows expected to remain weak as long as Middle East tensions are elevated, she added.

The dollar hovered near its highest in more than two weeks. The dollar index was steady at 98.852 following a 0.3% gain on Wednesday, hovering near the highest level since April 13, Reuters reported. The euro stood at $1.1689 and sterling traded at $1.34877, both up roughly 0.1%. The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 160.16 per dollar.

The hawkish shift of the US Fed sent treasury yields sharply higher. The 2-year note yield rose to 3.928%, while the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.421% — both their highest levels since March 27.

Asian markets traded mostly lower on Thursday, following overnight losses on Wall Street amid rising crude oil prices and US Fed policy. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 1.10% and the Topix fell 1.48%. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.06%, while the Kosdaq dropped 0.25%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures indicated a lower opening.

Four officials voted against the decision, including three who objected to language in their post-meeting statement that suggested the central bank would eventually resume cutting rates, Bloomberg reported. The 8-4 vote marked the first time since October 1992 that four officials dissented against a FOMC decision. The committee left their benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan “supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time,” the committee said.

Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a quarter-point reduction in rates.

Benchmark Japanese government bond (JGB) yields rose to a 29-year high after the US Fed signalled growing concerns about inflation, while oil prices jumped. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose 4 basis points (bps) to 2.500%, the highest since June 1997. The five-year yield rose 3 bps to 1.885%.

Wall Street seesawed on Wednesday as investors weighed surging oil prices, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, and a slate of major earnings due after the market close.

Fed kept its decision to keep rates unchanged while ongoing tensions in the Middle East added to concerns over rising energy prices.

According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 edged down 0.03% to 7,136.48, the Nasdaq Composite inched up 0.06% to 24,679.06, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.56% to 48,869.16.

The US Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% aligns with the RBI’s own pause at 5.25% earlier this April. Both central banks are trapped in a "wait-and-see" mode as the Iran conflict disrupts global supply chains.

The Energy Factor: With Brent crude surging toward $120/barrel, India faces high "imported inflation." The Fed’s cautiousness confirms that global energy prices are the primary threat to price stability, which may force the RBI to keep Indian repo rates higher for longer to protect the Rupee.

Market & FII Impact: For Indian investors, the Fed’s hold is a double-edged sword. While it prevents a massive sell-off, the lack of a rate cut means Foreign Institutional Investors (FPIs) might remain hesitant to move capital back into Indian equities until US yields soften.

The EMI Outlook: For Indian borrowers, this global trend suggests that home and auto loan EMIs are unlikely to drop in the near term. As long as the Fed remains hawkish due to energy risks, the RBI has little room to ease domestic borrowing costs without risking currency depreciation.

2026 Forecast: While the Fed still projects one cut this year, Indian markets are bracing for a prolonged "high-for-longer" cycle, with any local rate relief likely delayed until the tail end of 2026.

— Ajitabh Bharti, Executive Director and Co-founder, CapitalXB

Fed chair Jerome Powell said that economy has been resilient and has been remarkably resilient for some years now. It has powered through multiple shocks back-to-back, Powell said.

Powell said it was important to fight to maintain the independence of the institution and ensure that it does not go on.

Fed chairman Jerome Powell said that we are committed to bringing inflation down to 2% and sustainably; events keep happening that keep driving inflation back up. “What we can do is use our tools to guide inflation back to 2%,” Powell said in his address today.

Powell said that if gas prices go up, it hurts disposable income coming out of people's pockets and that is a hit on GDP.