US stock market today: Dow, S&P 500 futures gain even as US-Iran war drags into fifth week

After closing four consecutive weeks in losses, the US stock market is likely to kick off Monday's session, March 30, with modest gains, even as tensions in West Asia continue to simmer. Futures of the three key indices — the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq — were trading higher by around 0.3%.

Though futures indicate a positive start, US stocks are bracing for their biggest monthly drop in over three years, as higher crude oil prices have ignited fears of prolonged inflation, which has also trimmed prospects of multiple US Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.

Tensions in the Middle East have shown no signs of cooling as they have entered their fifth week, surpassing US President Donald Trump’s earlier prediction that the war would last four weeks.

In a further escalation, Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen entered the conflict, reportedly launching a barrage of missiles on Israel over the weekend, which kept crude oil prices marching higher and put them on track for a record monthly increase.

The war’s targets have now expanded beyond energy facilities and military bases to residential areas, as the US, Israel, and Iran are launching attacks on key populated locations.

In an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, President Donald Trump said he wants to “take the oil in Iran” and could seize the export hub of Kharg Island, a primary oil export terminal for Iran that handles 85% to 95% of the country’s total crude exports.

Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One late Sunday that the US was negotiating “directly and indirectly” with Iran, even as Tehran again dismissed direct talks with the US and threatened to launch its own ground invasion of Gulf Arab countries and mine the Persian Gulf if US troops land on its territory.

During Friday's session, both the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell into correction territory, as they are down 10% from their recent highs. The S&P 500 is also moving towards the correction zone in line with its peers, as it is just 1% away from slipping 10% from its recent highs.

The index has closed the last four straight weeks in the red, marking its longest losing streak since 2022 and is on track for the biggest monthly drop since September 2022, when it crashed 9.34%.

US stocks showed resilience at the beginning of the conflict compared to Asian markets, as the country is a net energy exporter. However, that optimism has faded as the month-long war’s economic costs have started to build up, along with a sharp sell-off in Treasuries and mounting recession fears.

Crude prices strengthen further

Brent crude continued to build on the last week's gains, with prices rising another2% to reach an intraday high of $117 per barrel, as traders fear that supply disruptions will persist.

Crude oil prices have remained elevated, as the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes — has effectively been shut since the US-Israel escalation against Iran in late February.

Before the start of the war, Brent crude was around $70, indicating that prices have surged nearly 60% in a month, putting it on track for a record monthly increase.

Economists have earlier warned that if crude oil prices remain at these elevated levels, it could hurt global growth and cripple many economies that are highly sensitive to crude price volatility.

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