US stock market today: S&P 500, Dow futures fall up to 0.8% as crude prices stay elevated; Brent hits $112

US stock futures edged lower on Monday, 18 May, as investors awaited Nvidia’s earnings report for fresh signals on the sustainability of the artificial intelligence-driven market rally, while the ongoing stalemate between the US and Iran continued to push oil prices higher.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 slipped 0.4%, while those linked to the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average each fell by 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively.

During Friday’s session, all three major US indices closed with losses of over 1%, as technology stocks — which had been leading markets to record highs — came under pressure amid a sharp spike in bond yields. The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level in nearly a year.

Surging oil prices have intensified concerns that central banks may keep interest rates elevated for longer, while governments could increase borrowing to cushion the impact of rising energy costs.

Meanwhile, the standoff in the Middle East showed little sign of easing after more than two months, threatening to derail the AI-driven rally that had pushed global equities to record highs.

On Sunday, US President Donald Trump said Iran needed to “get moving” or there “won’t be anything left.” Both countries continue to hold negotiations aimed at ending the conflict, although Iranian media reports suggested the two sides remain deeply divided, with the US offering “no tangible concessions” during talks.

The Iran conflict has now stretched beyond 80 days, while the Strait of Hormuz remains largely disrupted, with no clear pathway to a resolution. Last week’s two-day summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping ended without any concrete progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

On the corporate front, investors will closely track the busy earnings calendar this week, including Nvidia’s results on Wednesday. Markets will also be watching for SpaceX’s IPO prospectus, which is expected to be filed in the coming days.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq touched fresh record highs last week, while the Dow briefly reclaimed the 50,000 mark, supported largely by strong gains in Nvidia shares. The stock surged 4.7%, pushing the company’s market capitalisation above $5.6 trillion and reinforcing its position as the world’s most valuable company.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, due on Wednesday, are also expected to shape market expectations around the central bank’s next moves. Traders will look for clues on whether policymakers are shifting toward a more neutral stance or maintaining an easing bias as inflation risks remain elevated.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is yet to be formally sworn in, will also face questions over whether the central bank can continue to view inflationary pressures as “transitory”.

Crude prices remain elevated

Crude oil prices started the week higher after ending last week with strong gains, with benchmark US crude rising another $2.58 to around $108 per barrel after dropping $7 in the previous session.

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, climbed $2.60 to an intraday high of $111.86 per barrel, extending gains for a third straight session. Brent had ended last week with an 8% surge and is now up nearly 80% so far this year.

According to Kotak Securities, “Crude remains strongly supported as long as Hormuz disruptions persist and geopolitical negotiations remain stalled. However, any breakthrough in US-Iran talks, easing regional tensions, or restoration of normal shipping flows could trigger sharp profit-booking. Near-term sentiment continues to favour elevated volatility, with a firm risk premium embedded across global energy markets.”

US stocks in focus

UnitedHealth Group fell as much as 5.6% in premarket trading after Berkshire Hathaway exited its stake in the health insurer. Other stocks such as EchoStar, Rocket Lab, and AST SpaceMobile rallied in premarket trading after Elon Musk said he was back in Texas to work on plans for an initial public offering of SpaceX, Bloomberg reported.

Vested Finance said markets are beginning to crack under pressure as rising oil prices, persistent inflation fears, and surging bond yields continue to weigh on investor sentiment.

The brokerage said markets are finally reacting to the sustained rise in oil prices. For weeks, investors largely ignored the surge in crude and instead focused on AI-led earnings momentum. However, Vested Finance noted that higher energy prices are now feeding directly into inflation concerns and pushing bond yields higher globally.

The brokerage stated that markets can withstand high oil prices for a short period but warned that if the Middle East conflict drags on and bond yields continue to rise, pressure on equities, especially high-growth AI-related stocks, could intensify sharply.

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