US-Israel-Iran war: Experts see big gap down for Indian indices on Monday; safe-haven bets to fuel gold, silver rates

US-israel-Iran war: Following a 12-day air war in June 2025, Israel attacked Iran on Saturday, and a United States (US) attack is underway, plunging the Middle East into a renewed military confrontation and further dimming hopes for a diplomatic solution to Tehran's nuclear dispute with the West.

According to the new agency Associated Press (AP), the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a major attack on Iran launched by Israel and the United States, throwing the future of the Islamic Republic into doubt and raising the risk of regional instability.

This fallout in the Middle East is expected to escalate geopolitical tensions and uncertainty among investors, and various assets, especially equities, gold, and silver, are expected to react when trading resumes on Monday.

According to stock market experts, the escalation in the US-Iran war would have a negative impact on the global markets, including India's Dalal Street. Expecting a big gap-down opening on Monday, they said the Nifty 50 index may try to test its crucial support at 24,500 to 24,400 if the 50-stock index breaches its immediate support at 24,850 to 24,800. Market experts said the US-Iran war is expected to fuel safe-haven demand for gold and silver amid geopolitical uncertainty.

US-Iran war: How may the Indian stock market react?

On how the Indian stock market may open on Monday after the escalation in the US-Iran war buzz, Avinash Gorakshkar, a SEBI-registered fundamental equity analyst, said, “The Indian stock market may have a big gap down opening on Monday after the outbreak of the US-Iran war.”

Avinash Gorakshkar said that after the joint US-Israel attack on Iran, the geopolitical uncertainty has grown, and the supply chain is also expected to come under threat in the Middle East, especially the Strait of Hormuz, which transits about 20% of the global oil supply. So, the Nifty 50 index may find it tough to sustain above the immediate support placed at the 24,850 to 24,800 levels. If the 50-stock index decisively breaks below 24,800, the key benchmark index may test crucial support around the 24,500 to 24,400 levels.

Strait of Hormuz in focus

Advising investors to remain vigilant about the developments around the Strait of Hormuz, Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, said that escalating tensions in the Middle East pose material risks to global energy stability.

“Any disruption or blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil supply transits, could trigger a sharp spike in crude prices, push freight and logistics costs higher, and re-ignite inflationary pressures worldwide. Such a scenario would complicate central bank policy, forcing a delicate balance between inflation control and growth support,” Sugandha added.

Outlook for Nifty 50 today

Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, believes the Indian stock market is weak as the Nifty 50 index has closed below the 200-day EMA. The Choice Broking expert said the Nifty 50 index has formed its fourth consecutive red candle and closed below the 200-day EMA, indicating a weakening medium-term trend and a shift in the overall market structure toward bearishness.

Speaking on the outlook of the Nifty 50 index, Sumeet Bagadia said, “From a technical perspective, immediate resistance for the Nifty 50 index is seen in the 25,300–25,350 zone, while a strong support base is positioned around 25,000–25,050."

Israel attacks Iran: How will gold and silver rates react?

Asked about the kind of opening gold and silver prices may have on Monday after the escalation in US-Iran tension, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said, “The escalation in the US-Iran war buzz is expected to fuel uncertainty, and investors are expected to look at gold and silver as a safe-haven asset. We expect a gap-up opening for precious metals.”

Anuj Gupta said the COMEX gold rate today is facing a hurdle at $5,300/oz. Breaking above this resistance, gold rates in India may touch ₹1,68,000 to ₹1,70,000 per 10 gm.

Silver price may hit $100/oz

The COMEX silver rate finished above $93/oz on Friday, and the precious metal is facing a hurdle at the $95/oz level, said Anuj Gupta. He said COMEX silver prices may regain the $100/oz mark if it breaks and sustains above the $95/oz resistance.

“If the COMEX silver rate breaks and sustains above $95/oz, we can expect the spot silver price to regain $100 per ounce mark, and the silver rate in India may touch ₹3,00,000 per kg,” Anuj Gupta concluded.

Impact on crude oil prices

Expecting escalation in the WTI Crude Oil prices on Monday, Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at PACE 360, said that WTI Crude and Brent Crude may open upside on Monday. However, Israel and the US attacks on Iran will be limited to diffusing Tehran's military establishment. They may not touch their oil fields, as it would disrupt oil supply for a longer period, which could lead to a sudden upside in global and US inflation.

The Chief Global Strategist of PACE 360 believes the US Congressional elections are just 9 months away and that US President Donald Trump may not take this risk, as it could jeopardise his party's chances of winning. So, crude oil prices would rise modestly due to heightened US-Iran tensions, and the US administration may try to address the demand-supply imbalance caused by the oil supply disruption in Iran by asking Saudi Arabia and Iran to increase their oil output.

“So, we are expecting that crude oil price may not go beyond $75 per barrel and Brent Crude oil price may not go beyond $80 per barrel,” Amit Goel of PACE 360 concluded.

The PACE 360 expert said that Iran exports just 3% of the global oil produced. So, disruption in the production and supply of oil from Iran won't be a big deal, as it can be offset by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It is the Strait of Hormuz, which is important for the smooth flow of oil.

“I believe, once the US and Israel get control over Iran, the Strait of Hormuz will start to function in a smooth manner, and it won't take much time,” Amit Goel said.

US-Iran war news

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a major attack on Iran launched by Israel and the United States, throwing the future of the Islamic Republic into doubt and raising the risk of regional instability.

According to AP, Iranian state television and the state-run IRNA news announced the 86-year-old's death early Sunday. President Donald Trump had announced his death hours earlier, saying it gave Iranians their “greatest chance” to “take back” their country.

The announcements came after a joint U.S. and Israeli aerial bombardment that targeted Iranian military and governmental sites. Trump said the “heavy and pinpoint bombing” was to continue through the week or as long as necessary.

(With inputs from Reuters, AP)

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