Vinay Rajani of HDFC Sec suggests these 2 ETFs to buy in the near-term

Stock market today: The main domestic stock indices, Nifty 50 and Sensex, recovered from initial losses on Monday as worries regarding trade negotiations with the U.S. subsided after the new Washington ambassador to New Delhi announced that trade discussions would take place on January 13. The Nifty 50 increased by 0.3% to reach 25,758 . 80, while the Sensex climbed 0.11% to 83,670.46 as of 14:35 IST.

Both indices had dropped by 0.8% during the trading session before making a comeback.

In late morning trading on Monday, the Sensex and Nifty 50 fell nearly 1% due to ongoing foreign fund withdrawals, apprehensions about additional U.S. tariffs on Indian exports, and geopolitical issues, which negatively affected investor sentiment. The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 715.17 points or 0.85% to 82,861.07 in late morning trade. The 50-share Nifty 50 decreased by 209.9 points or 0.81% to 25,473.40.

Market Views - Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst, HDFC Securities

Nifty 50 has witnessed a fall of more than 800 points from the recent swing an all-time high of 26,373. After forming

triple top near 26,300, Nifty 50 has now reached below its 20,50- and 100-days EMA, which indicates shift towards positional down trend. Previous swing high of 25,700 could act as an immediate resistance in case of pullbacks. Positional resistance for Nifty 50 is seen in the band of 26,050-26,100, surpassing of which on closing basis would negate the down trend. Nifty 50 has been falling for last 6 trading sessions and in continuation of a downtrend. Next meaningful support for the index is seen near 25,300, followed by 200 DEMA (25,138).

India VIX recently bounced from near its 52-week low of 8.72, rising to around 10.93 with a 3.11% gain on January 9, 2026, amid broader market declines. This uptick from multi-year lows signals emerging caution among investors after a prolonged period of subdued volatility. A bounce from all-time or record lows suggests volatility compression may be easing, potentially due to rising uncertainty from global cues or recent equity selloffs.

The ratio chart of Nifty 50 divided by Nifty Smallcap 250 tracks the relative strength of large-cap Nifty 50 stocks against small-cap performance, where a declining ratio shows Large caps underperforming and an upward reversal signals Largecap gaining strength. Nifty Smallcap 250 covers the smaller end of Nifty 500 (ranks 251-500), making it sensitive to broader market breadth and risk appetite.

Microcap and Smallcap Indices have Witnessed Death Crossover of 50 DEMA Crossing Below 200 DEMA, which indicates that there is bigger risk involved in holding smaller stocks as they turned more vulnerable.

Nifty 50 Strategy : Considering the technical evidence discussed above, we believe that Nifty 50 has probably made a short-term peak near 26,300 and reversed its trend downwards. Any level below 100 DEMA (25,618) could drag the index further towards positional supports of 25,315. On the higher side, a band of 26,050-26,100 could offer resistance for the next week. Traders should utilize bounces to lighten long commitments.

ETF Picks

Buy HDFC Gold ETF (119) | Target Rs. 125 | Stop-loss Rs. 115

ETF has been forming higher tops and higher bottoms on the weekly charts. Higher tops and higher bottoms on the weekly and monthly chart. ETF is placed above all key moving averages, indicating uptrend on all time frames. Weekly RSI is sustaining above 50, indicating sustained uptrend for the underlying. MACD is placed above signal and zero line on both weekly and monthly charts. Price rise is accompanied by healthy volumes.

Buy HDFC Silver ETF (242) | Target Rs. 260 | Stop-loss Rs. 230

ETF has been forming higher tops and higher bottoms on the weekly charts. Higher tops and higher bottoms on the weekly and monthly chart. ETF is placed above all key moving averages, indicating uptrend on all time frames. Weekly RSI is sustaining above 50, indicating sustained uptrend for the underlying. MACD is placed above signal and zero line on both weekly and monthly charts. Price rise is accompanied by healthy volumes. Short-term moving averages placed above long-term moving averages.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.