Vodafone Idea share price dips over 4% after JPMorgan downgrades the stock, predicts 20% downside

Vodafone Idea share price declined over 4% in early trade on Thursday after foreign brokerage firm JPMorgan downgraded its rating on the telecom stock and estimated a 20% downside in the shares. Vodafone Idea shares fell as much as 4.47% to ₹11.32 apiece on the BSE.

JPMorgan has downgraded Vodafone Idea shares to ‘Underweight’ and a target price of ₹9 per share, implying a potential downside of 20% from its Wednesday’s closing price.

JPMorgan believes Vodafone Idea share price outperformance is overdone as the telecom company still awaits bank funding to drive next leg of the capex cycle, which is crucial to arrest subscriber losses and move to net adds by investing in the network.

The brokerage firm noted that the first capex cycle started from the first quarter of 25 post the ₹18,000 crore fund raise via via follow-on public offer (FPO) which resulted in the company being able to arrest subscriber losses to an extent, but it was still not sufficient to drive positive net additions, while its market share fell marginally from 19% in Q1FY25 to 17% in Q3FY26.

Vodafone Idea’s target of a threefold increase in cash EBITDA over the next three years looks aggressive as the company is baking in market share gains versus Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio, JPMorgan said, adding that it remains skeptical of this.

It downgraded the stock on belief that Vodafone Idea has multiple hurdles to cross before the business stabilizes in the form of getting the bank funding, and going to positive subscriber additions.

At 15x FY27 EV/EBITDA estimates, Vodafone Idea share price seems to be baking in all positives, JPMorgan said.

Kumar Mangalam Birla Buys Additional Stake

The fall in Vodafone Idea share price today came after the stock rallied more than 3% in the previous session. The gains in the Vodafone Idea shares came after data showed promoter Kumar Mangalam Birla has been buying additional shares in the telecom operator from the open market.

According to the NSE data, Kumar Mangalam Birla bought 2.21 crore Vodafone Idea shares on January 30, followed by 1.88 crore shares bought on February 1 and 45 lakh shares acquired on February 2.

Birla bought another 1.42 crore shares on February 3, and 1.87 crore Vodafone Idea shares on February 4.

In total, Kumar Mangalam Birla bought 7.83 crore Vodafone Idea shares between January 30 to February 4.

Vodafone Idea share price has fallen 15% in one month and has declined over 10% in three months. The telecom stock has plunged 47% in the past one year, while it has rallied 45% in five years.

At 9:55 AM, Vodafone Idea share price was trading 3.29% lower at ₹11.46 apiece on the BSE.

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