Geopolitical tensions in West Asia often trigger fears of another oil shock. But India’s experience during the 1991 Gulf War shows how dramatically the country’s economic resilience has improved since then. While crude spikes still create volatility, they are far less likely to trigger a systemic crisis today.
Against this backdrop, energy stocks often become key market movers.
Here are three stocks to buy or sell, as recommended by Raja Venkatraman of NeoTrader, for Monday, 16 March.
Best stocks to buy today (All Buy trades are rates of Equity & Sell rates are based on F&O)
ONGC: Buy above ₹266, stop ₹250 target ₹299 (Multiday)
RELIANCE: Buy above ₹1385, stop ₹1290 target ₹1550 (Multiday)
ATGL: Buy above ₹570, stop ₹530 target ₹650 (Multiday)
From 1991 oil shock to crisis
In 1991, the Gulf War sent crude prices sharply higher and almost doubled India’s oil import burden in a short span. Because India was heavily import-dependent and had very low foreign-exchange buffers, every extra dollar of crude directly worsened the macro picture. Forex reserves fell to barely a few weeks of imports, leaving policymakers with almost no room for error. The rupee had to be steeply devalued, inflation pressures rose, and what began as a commodity shock quickly morphed into a full-blown balance-of-payments crisis.
This was not a routine “buy the dip” market correction but an episode where the entire system looked vulnerable. The key lesson from 1991 is that when buffers are weak, geopolitics is not just noise; it directly becomes a survival question for the economy and financial markets.
How India became more resilient
Post-1991 reforms were essentially about building buffers so that one oil spike could no longer break the economy. Over the decades, India increased foreign-exchange reserves, improved inflation management, and built stronger macro-institutions. Market plumbing changed too: domestic mutual funds, SIP culture, and long-term local investors now provide a more stable base of capital.
Since then, India has lived through Kargil, the global financial crisis, multiple border flare-ups and various West Asia scares. In most of these, equity drawdowns around geopolitical events have been sharp but relatively short-lived, with markets often recovering once crude and the rupee stabilise. Volatility remains real, but structurally the system is far stronger than it was in 1991.
How geopolitics hits oil & gas
Geopolitical shocks do not move markets simply because of the word “war”; they move them through four concrete levers: crude prices, currency, inflation, and interest rates. A spike in crude directly hits India’s import bill and corporate input costs. A weaker rupee then adds to the pain by making imports costlier and potentially triggering foreign portfolio outflows. If oil and currency pressures persist, they feed into higher inflation and can force rate hikes, which depress valuations across sectors.
For investors, the practical chain during a West Asia scare looks like this: Strait of Hormuz risk leads to an oil spike, which moves the rupee, which changes inflation expectations, which shifts rate expectations, which then get priced into equities. If oil and the rupee stabilize quickly, the shock is usually short-lived and tends not to become a regime-changing event.
Top 3 performing oil & gas plays in this setup
Within this framework, the most attractive oil and gas opportunities during such episodes tend to share three traits: strong balance sheets, pricing power, and strategic importance to the energy system. Based on that logic in the current Gulf-War-type scenario described in your document (rather than specific price data), the top three types of oil and gas stocks that typically outperform are:
In practice, this means favouring core, high-quality leaders rather than highly leveraged, small-cap beta plays. The playbook that we have maintained explicitly warns against leverage and weak balance sheets during peak uncertainty and advises using sharp, short corrections to add to quality leaders instead of trying to time everything.
ONGC (Cmp 264.10)
ONGC: Buy above ₹266, stop ₹250 target ₹299 (Multiday)
- Why it’s recommended: Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) is India's largest government-owned oil and gas explorer, contributing over 70% of the country's domestic production. As a Maharatna PSU, it produces crude oil and natural gas, with significant offshore and onshore operations. Looking ahead, the structural story for quality oil and gas counters is shaped by both risk and opportunity. On the risk side, recurring West Asia tensions, potential supply disruptions, and the energy transition all create uncertainty around volumes, margins, and capital‑allocation decisions.
On the opportunity side, India’s growing energy demand, ongoing investments in refining and gas infrastructure, and policy support for cleaner fuels give well‑run energy companies a long runway. With the rise in crude oil prices, we can expect some upside in the coming days. The last 12 months was spent in consolidation and the recent charge above value resistance zone around 250 has triggered some upside recently. With the positive tailwind from the recent development, we can note that the strong closing above the trendline could generate a bullish momentum. With majority of top brokerages too giving it an upgrade we could see some action after 2025 was marked by a year of stability in 2025 a significant production rampup is possible. - Key metrics:
- P/E Ratio: 232.39
- 52-week high: ₹1965
- Volume: 5.09M
- Technical analysis: Support at ₹220, resistance at ₹310.
- Risk factors: High capital intensity with long gestation periods for exploration, geopolitical instability affecting overseas ventures.
- Buy : above ₹266.
- Stop loss: ₹250.
- Target price: ₹299. (3 Months)
RELIANCE (Cmp 1380.70)
RELIANCE: Buy above ₹1385, stop ₹1290 target ₹1550 (Multiday)
- Why it’s recommended: Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is a diversified energy‑to‑consumer conglomerate that, unlike a pure E&P player, tends to experience a mix of risk and opportunity during Gulf‑driven oil shocks because higher crude hurts feedstock costs but often boosts refining and petrochemical margins, while its telecom and retail engines cushion volatility. Reliance operates one of the world’s most complex refining and petrochemical hubs at Jamnagar, an integrated Oil‑to‑Chemicals (O2C) business, an upstream oil & gas segment, and large consumer franchises in Jio (digital) and Reliance Retail. Recent quarters show an 11% YoY rise in consolidated revenues in Q3 FY26, with flat profit, as strong O2C and consumer businesses offset pressure in the upstream oil & gas segment.
The revival has been slow and will look to unfold as the RBI infuses liquidity into the system through facilitating increased funding through banks. At the moment prices are demonstrating some slow and steady rise where recent dips are witnessing a sharp revival. The price candle seen in February 2026 is seen holding the lows for the last two months hinting at some revival in store. While volatility remains limited (label 2) there are signs that a recovery is due that we can consider for a push to higher levels. Go long now.
- Key metrics:
- P/E: 39.47,
- 52-week high: ₹1611.20,
- Volume: 204.49M.
- Technical analysis: Support at ₹1225, resistance at ₹1800.
- Risk factors: High debt from capital-intensive projects, volatility in oil-to-chemicals (O2C) margins, intense competition in telecom/retail, and geopolitical threats affecting energy prices.
- Buy : above ₹1385
- Stop loss: ₹1290
- Target price: ₹1550 (3 Months)
ATGL (Cmp 565.90)
ATGL: Buy above ₹570, stop ₹530 target ₹650 (Multiday)
- Why it’s recommended: The Adani Total Gas Ltd (ATGL) share price experienced a severe crash starting in late January 2023, losing roughly 80% to 85% of its value from its peak following a damning report from US-based short-seller Hindenburg Research. The revival has been slow and will look to unfold as shares of city gas distribution and LNG companies rallied, with several gas-linked stocks gaining sharply after the government moved to stabilise supplies amid disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict. This newsflow is inducing some bullish bias and this could generate some positive vibes in the counter in the coming days.
As concerns remains on how to address the situation, authorities have also directed refiners to maximise LPG production and divert additional output toward household consumption. Looking at the newsflow the trends could firm up under the current scenario thus looking to push the prices upward. At the moment prices are demonstrating some slow and steady rise where recent dips are witnessing a sharp revival. The price candle seen in March 2026 is seen holding the lows for the last two months hinting at some revival in store. While volatility remains, once a recovery situation begins, we can consider for a push to higher levels . Go long now. - Key metrics:
- P/E: 84.34,
- 52-week high: ₹798,
- Volume: 102.77M.
- Technical analysis: Support at ₹470, resistance at ₹900.
- Risk factors: Dependent on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), regulatory changes in India's City Gas Distribution (CGD) sector, and volatility in global energy prices.
- Buy : above ₹570
- Stop loss: ₹530
- Target price: ₹650 (3 Months)
Future prospects in these counters
Looking ahead, the structural story for quality oil and gas counters is shaped by both risk and opportunity. On the risk side, recurring West Asia tensions, potential supply disruptions, and the energy transition all create uncertainty around volumes, margins, and capital-allocation decisions. On the opportunity side, India’s growing energy demand, ongoing investments in refining and gas infrastructure, and policy support for cleaner fuels give well-run energy companies a long runway.
Your playbook emphasises that the real question in any shock is time: is it a brief spike or a sustained uptrend in crude and macro stress? In most brief episodes, structurally strong Indian energy names face temporary earnings pressure but benefit from later normalisation and mean-reversion in valuations. For patient investors with a rules-based process—watching crude bands, USDINR, bond yields, and policy commentary—these counters can still be attractive long-term compounders rather than pure trading vehicles.
Conclusion
The 1991 Gulf War showed how a single oil shock can break a fragile economy, but post-reform India has steadily upgraded from fragility to resilience. Today, West Asia tensions still hurt through higher crude and macro volatility, yet they rarely push the system into full-blown crisis.
In this environment, the most compelling oil and gas opportunities are high-quality integrated majors, gas infrastructure plays, and scale refiners with solid balance sheets, not leveraged high-beta names. For long-term investors who track the right macro levers and avoid panic-selling, these shocks are increasingly episodes to use volatility to accumulate strength rather than to exit in fear.
Raja Venkatraman is co-founder, NeoTrader. His Sebi-registered research analyst registration no. is INH000016223.
Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantees performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.