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Business News/ Markets / Stock Markets/  Lok Sabha polls 2024: Equities or other asset classes? What should you pick ahead of election results
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Lok Sabha polls 2024: Equities or other asset classes? What should you pick ahead of election results

With the 2024 general elections in India ongoing, investors are preparing for market volatility as Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks a third term. Analysts suggest different strategies, from increasing equity exposure to adding gold and long-tenure debt to portfolios.

With the 2024 general elections in India ongoing, investors are preparing for market volatility as Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks a third term. Analysts suggest different strategies, from increasing equity exposure to adding gold and long-tenure debt to portfolios.Premium
With the 2024 general elections in India ongoing, investors are preparing for market volatility as Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks a third term. Analysts suggest different strategies, from increasing equity exposure to adding gold and long-tenure debt to portfolios.

With the general election 2024 underway and the incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi vying for a historic third term, investors are bracing themselves for increased market volatility. Even though the markets have already priced in the return of the current BJP government to power, still some market movements cannot be ruled out during the elections and their results.

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in India commenced on April 19 and will continue over a 44-day period, culminating on June 1. This major political event, held every five years, is of great significance to most Indians as it can influence various facets of their lives, including savings and investments. The outcome of the elections can have a profound impact on economic policies and market sentiments, which play a crucial role in shaping the country's future trajectory.

Read here: Shankar Sharma's general election prediction: If BJP/NDA comes with expected numbers, no major market move/slightly down

Due to its huge impact, elections can introduce uncertainty as market participants anticipate potential shifts in economic policies, regulation, and geopolitical stability. This can affect various asset classes differently, prompting investors to evaluate their portfolios and adjust their strategies accordingly.

The impact of elections on the markets is complex and can vary depending on the political landscape and the policies of the parties involved. While some sectors may benefit from anticipated policy changes, others may face challenges. Given this uncertainty, should investors increase their weight in equities or accumulate other asset classes? Here's what experts have to say:

Read here: General Elections 2024: No major impact of polls on equity market, says FidelFolio

While some suggest increasing positions in Gold, others believe equities will remain the king. Let's see what they suggest.

Sunil Damania, Chief Investment Officer, MojoPMS

Presently, market sentiment reflects confidence in the Modi government's continuity, with positive expectations already factored into pricing.

While the short-term outlook may appear subdued, our assessment of the equity market for the medium to long term is notably bullish. We maintain a strong conviction that the Indian equity market is poised for significant growth, potentially doubling from the current election cycle to the subsequent one.

Therefore, investors facing short-term uncertainties are encouraged to adopt a perspective focused on long-term gains.

Read here: With polls underway, will 'Sell in May and Go Away' apply this year?

V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services

The market has already discounted an NDA/BJP in the elections. Therefore, the election outcome is unlikely to influence the market beyond a point. However, the market is likely to react to the Budget which the prime minister has already indicated will be ‘transformational’.

Investors may adopt a multi-asset investment strategy, going forward, with investments in equity, fixed income and gold. The highest weightage should certainly be for equity.

Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives & Research, SAMCO Securities

We have been recommending adding gold and long-tenure debt to the portfolio since the beginning of 2024. We prefer to follow this asset allocation model where one reduces his exposure to equities gradually and adds more gold and long-tenure debt to the portfolio. First, we have our election results to be announced in June and later in the year, we have US elections. Both these events are bound to bring volatility in the markets. Thus, it’s better to increase exposure to gold and debt.

Read here: General Elections 2024: How macroeconomic factors like equities, FPIs, inflation this year compare with 2019 polls

Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research, Ventura Securities

Despite valuation concerns equities are the best investment asset class for the next five years. So a buy-on-dips strategy in stocks that offer the best growth versus real perceptions are the stocks to buy.

The other asset classes to help diversify the portfolio are precious metals -gold and silver and agri commodities.

Bonds are not the right vehicle. But for seniors and the elderly fixed income with high yield from mid-rated corporates can be a good investment opportunity.

Read here: General Elections 2024: An up move seems more likely than a correction ahead of polls, says Shauryam Gupta of Rupeezy

Neeraj Chadawar, Head - Fundamental and Quantitative Research, Axis Securities

Indian corporates are more likely to continue trading at premium valuations. Hence, any market correction due to global challenges will be an opportunity to add to the equity portfolio. However, FY25 will provide more opportunities as geopolitical challenges continue to persist. Nonetheless, double-digit returns can be expected from Indian equities, with some edge over large Caps. Overall, FY25 is likely to be a good year for Indian equities and is more likely to deliver better returns than most asset classes.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

 

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Published: 02 May 2024, 04:42 PM IST
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