Stock Market prediction today: Sensex, Nifty outlook for Wed | Kospi, Taiwan Index, Nikkei cues to watch | 16 Sept

The wave of selling gripped the Indian stock market during Tuesday's trade, September 15, dragging the benchmark indices lower by around 1%, as escalating tensions in the Middle East kept crude oil prices elevated, fuelling inflation concerns and strengthening expectations of central bank rate hikes.

Markets began the session on a weak note, tracking losses on Wall Street, and selling pressure persisted through the close, leaving little room for the bulls to stage a recovery.

Adding to the cautious sentiment, a sell-off in US Treasuries strengthened the case for a US Federal Reserve rate hike, keeping investors on edge ahead of the central bank's policy decision.

Indian stock market on Tuesday

The Nifty 50 closed 1% lower at 23,172, breaking below the key support level of 23,300. The Sensex also remained under pressure, falling 0.82% from Friday's close to settle at 74,171.

The sell-off was even more pronounced in the broader market, with the Nifty Midcap 100 falling 2.07% and the Nifty Smallcap 100 declining 2.53%. Barring IT, all major sectoral indices ended in the red, reflecting broad-based selling pressure across the market.

Realty, chemicals, cement, metals, media, consumer durables and PSU stocks all closed with losses of more than 2%. The IT index, however, bucked the trend and gained 2.32%, as hopes resurfaced that software stocks could attract renewed demand after leading AI companies called for a slower pace of development.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for a slowdown in the development of advanced AI, while OpenAI CEO Sam Altman backed the proposal. The comments have raised expectations that a slower pace of AI development could prompt investors to reassess the outlook for traditional software and IT services companies.

Crude oil climbs as Middle East tensions threaten supplies

Turning to the commodity market, oil prices continued to climb as fighting in the Middle East disrupted global crude flows. An important Saudi oil pipeline will remain largely out of service for weeks following an attack last week, The Associated Press reported, citing two regional officials.

The pipeline provides Saudi Arabia with an alternative route to shift oil exports to the Red Sea, helping it avoid the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian attacks have disrupted the movement of oil tankers.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose $2.75 to $108.43 a barrel, compared with around $72 a barrel before the start of the war in Iran in late February. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.81 to $104.20 a barrel.

Meanwhile, Iran-backed forces have reportedly seized the strategic Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after taking the port city of Mokha on Yemen's western coast. The developments have added to concerns over further disruptions to critical oil supply and shipping routes, keeping pressure on global energy markets.

Will Asian markets find support after the recent sell-off?

In Asia, Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 surged in morning trading before giving up its earlier gains in the afternoon session to finish little changed, down less than 0.1% at 63,484.10. South Korea's Kospi declined 0.9% to 6,627.26. Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 1.0% to 24,667.24, while the Shanghai Composite lost 0.5% to 3,864.28. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.9% to 8,672.50.

Vipin Kumar, AVP-Research at Globe Capital Market, said the KOSPI index is gradually heading toward the lower band support of its previous month-long congestion zone placed around 6,500–6,450 spot levels. On the upside, 6,800–6,900 would act as immediate resistance.

He mentioned that following a breach from its month-long congestion range, the Hang Seng index is gradually heading toward the price support placed around the 23,900 spot level, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its previous upswing. Immediate resistance is placed around 24,950–25,050 spot levels.

He said the Dow Jones Industrial Average is likely to continue its short-term profit-taking journey toward the 51,500-spot level, and any bounce toward 52,800–53,000 will act as immediate resistance.

Can Nifty hold 23,000 support or face further downside?

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said from a technical perspective, the 23,300–23,400 region is now likely to act as the immediate resistance zone, followed by the stronger 23,500 level. A sustained move above 23,500 would be required to stabilize the near-term structure and support a recovery towards higher levels. However, unless the index decisively reclaims these resistance levels, recovery attempts are likely to attract fresh selling pressure.

He mentioned that on the downside, 23,070 remains a crucial level to watch as it coincides with the June low and represents an important support for the index. A decisive break below 23,070 could intensify selling pressure and expose to the 23,000–22,800 region, followed by lower support levels.

Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, Founder & CEO of HST Wealth, said the Nifty decisively breached the 23,300-support level and is now approaching the psychological 23,000 mark.

A sustained break below 23,000 could expose the index to further weakness towards 22,800, while 23,300–23,500 is likely to act as the first resistance band on any recovery. Bank Nifty also slipped below 56,000, shifting attention to the next support near 55,500. The index now faces resistance in the 56,000–56,500 region.

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