Tata Motors shares tank 7% from day's high despite stellar Q4 results: Should you buy, sell or hold Tata Group stock?

Tata Motors Q4 results 2026: Tata Motors shares tanked over 7% after rising in early deals on Thursday, 14 May, even after the commercial vehicle maker reported a strong set of earnings for the January-March quarter of FY26 after market hours.

The stock shed as much as 7.2% to its day's low of ₹367.55 from its intraday high of ₹396.30 apiece on the BSE.

On May 13, the demerged Tata Motors entity posted a sharp 69.56% year-on-year rise in standalone net profit to ₹2,406 crore for Q4FY26, compared with ₹1,419 crore in the corresponding quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter increased 22% year-on-year to ₹24,452 crore, while EBITDA climbed 35% year-on-year to ₹3,400 crore. The company reported an EBITDA margin of 13.9%, up 130 basis points year-on-year and ahead of its medium-term guidance.

Tata Motors said the company delivered a record performance in Q4FY26 and a strong full-year showing, supported by disciplined execution and continued focus on profitable growth.

The company’s Board of Directors also recommended a final dividend of ₹4 per equity share with a face value of ₹2 each for the financial year ended March 31, 2026. The dividend, subject to shareholder approval at the AGM, will be paid to eligible shareholders on or before July 2, 2026.

Tata Motors management remained optimistic about the sector outlook despite global uncertainties.

Managing Director and CEO Girish Wagh said FY26 represented a significant milestone for the commercial vehicle industry, with overall volumes crossing the pre-FY19 peak. He attributed the recovery to the impact of GST 2.0 reforms and continued government-led infrastructure spending.

Wagh added that underlying demand fundamentals continue to remain resilient, although geopolitical uncertainties could lead to some moderation in the near term. He said Tata Motors remains well-positioned to maintain growth momentum through strong business fundamentals, disciplined execution, proactive risk management and a refreshed product portfolio focused on lower total cost of ownership and smart digital solutions.

Should you buy, sell or hold?

Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOSL) reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating on Tata Motors with a target price of ₹414 per share after the company’s Q4FY26 earnings, citing a cautious outlook for the domestic commercial vehicle (CV) industry amid geopolitical uncertainties and possible near-term margin pressure.

MOSL said Tata Motors’ Q4FY26 standalone profit after tax stood at ₹22 billion, below its estimate of ₹23 billion due to lower-than-expected other income, even as the company’s operational performance remained in line with expectations. The brokerage highlighted that EBITDA margin expanded 130 basis points year-on-year to 13.9%, supported by operating leverage benefits.

“The demand outlook for the domestic CV industry has turned cautious post ongoing geopolitical dynamics and the impact it may have on the Indian economy, with likely margin pressure in the near term. We have, hence, lowered our growth forecast for TMCV CV volumes to 6% CAGR over FY26-28E from 8% CAGR earlier,” MOSL said.

The brokerage said it now expects Tata Motors to report revenue, EBITDA, and profit after tax CAGR of 8%, 8%, and 10%, respectively, over FY26-28E.

MOSL added that the stock appears fairly valued at 20.8x FY27 estimated EPS and 17.9x FY28 estimated EPS. It said the target price of ₹414 per share is based on valuing the core business at 12x FY28 estimated EV/EBITDA, in line with peers, while also assigning ₹12 per share for the company’s stake in Tata Capital.

Brokerage firm Nuvama Institutional Equities retained its ‘Buy’ call on Tata Motors and set a target price of ₹480 per share, implying a potential upside of 41% from current market levels.

The brokerage said the medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) industry had bottomed out in FY21 before witnessing a sustained recovery over the following years. According to Nuvama, industry volumes not only surpassed the earlier FY19 peak but also reached a fresh high in FY26, indicating that the broader upcycle in the commercial vehicle segment remains intact.

Nuvama expects the positive momentum in the industry to continue over the coming years, which could help the sector achieve further record-high volumes. It believes Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles is well-positioned to benefit from this trend and is likely to broadly mirror overall industry growth.

The brokerage estimated that Tata Motors’ domestic commercial vehicle volumes could grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 3% over the medium term. It also highlighted the company’s improving export opportunity, driven by a large international order secured from Indonesia.

Tata Motors recently won an order for 70,000 vehicles from Indonesia, comprising 35,000 units each of the Yodha Pick-up and Ultra T.7 truck models. Supported by this large order pipeline, Nuvama expects the company’s export volumes to register a strong CAGR of 48%.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.