Stock market bulls have strenuously defended the Nifty's 24,600 level four times since July, raising hopes that it will hold even as the current storm passes. The level is critical, since a fall below it could drag the index to as low as 24,000.
The key technical floor was tested on Monday as investors reacted to the outbreak of hostilities in West Asia following joint strikes by the US and Israel against Iran over the weekend. Markets were shut on Tuesday for Holi.
The Nifty 50 shed 1.24% to close at 24,865.70 after plunging over 2% during the day. The benchmark hit an intraday low of 24,603.5 before paring losses — once again holding above the 24,600 mark that traders have treated as crucial support since last year.
On 29 July last year, the Nifty bounced from a low of 24,598.6 to close at 24,956.5 two days later. On 30 September 2025, it hit an intraday low of 24,587.7 before recovering to close at 24,611.10. On 1 February 2026, the index touched 24,571.75 and later closed the month at 25,178.65. Monday marked another test.
The repeated defence of that level has kept alive hopes of a short-term bounce, supported by what traders describe as heavy cash buying around 24,600. But a decisive breach, particularly if the conflict widens and crude supply concerns intensify, could accelerate the downside, dragging the Nifty to 24,000, about 3.5% lower from Monday’s close, according to options data from the National Stock Exchange.
"There could be a near-term bounce from 24,600 once again , but honestly everything depends on news flows ," said Rohit Srivastava , founder of analytics firm IndiaCharts . "Surrounding Gulf states are being hit and there is a risk of tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz being attacked by Iran, raising the risk premium on crude as they take a longer route to Asian markets."
Reflecting those concerns, the active oil futures contract on commodity bourse MCX rose 6.6% to ₹6,497 a barrel on Monday.
Srivastava said that if the Nifty breaks 24,600 due to further supply issues in crude, it would plunge into a “free fall.” He explained that a trendline connecting all the lows since July would show a base at 24,600.
Bulls vouch for 24,600 support
Options positioning underscores the importance of the 24,600 level.
Option sellers sold the 25,000 strike Nifty put expiring on 30 March at a volume weighted average price (VWAP) of ₹416.99 a share (65 shares make one contract) on Monday. That implies a breakeven of 24,583, close to the 24,600 support.
If the market closes flat at 25,000, or lower, by expiry day, sellers will pocket the premium paid by the buyers. However, a decisive break below 24,600 could force them to cover short put positions, adding speed to the correction.
VWAP refers to the price at which the most transactions occur. For instance, if 10 shares are purchased for ₹100 each and 20 for ₹90 each, the VWAP is ₹93.33, compared with the simple average price of ₹95 per share.
As of Monday, open interest in the 30 March expiry showed the highest outstanding positions at the 25,000 put (87,245 contracts) and the 26,000 call (102,070 contracts), indicating support near 25,000 and resistance around 26,000.
Open interest refers to the money flowing into a market and is an important parameter to determine support and resistance levels.
Should the 24,600 support give way, options point to the next support at 24,000. The 24,000 put carries the second-highest open interest at 81,595 contracts, marking it as the next level where bulls have built positions. A move to 24,000 would represent a decline of about 3.5% from Monday’s close.
Not all investors, however, are bracing for a prolonged slide.
Jyotivardhan Jaipuria, founder of portfolio management service firm Valentis Advisors, said buying during a war-induced correction has historically proved prudent.
"A well-known market saying is "buy the cannons," meaning buy at the start of a war since the market impact is limited to only a few weeks. The average drawdown is around 6% and the market recovers to pre-war levels in around 1 month. We think this will be similar and expect markets to stabilize over the next one or two weeks. We are looking to deploy some cash during this correction," Jaipuria said.