From lockdown exit strategies to simulating the spread of a virus, how predictive models work during pandemics
If you were to look at the two main facets of the covid-19 pandemic, you wouldn’t have to look beyond numbers. First, the rising number of infections globally (more than five million) and death toll (more than 350,000). Then, the covid-19 R-0 (r-naught) value, which is the reproduction number of the virus that tells you how infectious the novel coronavirus is. Will the disease spread? How many people could get infected and how many could die? The answers to all these rest with the R-0.