How the US, Russia and China are locked in a race to control the Arctic region

Anoop Mahajan
7 min read11 Jul 2026, 02:00 PM IST
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The Ny-Ålesund railway on Spitsbergen, Svalbard, which operated from 1917-62.(Anoop Mahajan)
Summary
The Arctic, long regarded as a mythical realm, is rapidly changing due to climate change. Kenneth R. Rosen's 'Polar War' explores geopolitical tensions as nations vie for resources and trade routes, while emphasising the fragility of the region's ecology amidst military concerns

For centuries, the Arctic has lingered in the global imagination as a mythical, almost otherworldly place. The Greeks believed that beyond the cold northern winds lived the Hyperboreans, a people blessed with eternal spring, perfect happiness, and extraordinary longevity. This myth gives us Boreas, the god of the North Wind, and the root of Aurora Borealis, or the now Instagram-famous Northern Lights. The Arctic is supposedly also home to Santa Claus and his Elves, and even to Superman.

In reality, the Arctic is an empty, frozen wilderness that tests the limits of survival, inhabited only by lurking polar bears, intrepid explorers and ancient Inuit communities. As with all past explorers, my first experience of the Arctic was awe at the brutal, unforgiving landscape, followed by a deep urge to protect this unique and vital place.

However, the Arctic is changing, and it is changing fast. It is warming faster than any other region on Earth, and while some world leaders continue to publicly question the scientific evidence, they have privately realised that climate change is real. Their governments are preparing for an ice-free Arctic that will unlock new trade routes and access to valuable natural resources.

In Polar War, Kenneth R. Rosen examines this unfolding transformation and the geopolitical scramble it has triggered among the world’s major powers. He demonstrates how leaders from Russia and China have long recognised the role the Arctic will play in the near- and long-term future, while the current global superpower, the US, hampered by political grandstanding and poor foresight, has been forced to play catch-up.

Rosen’s first-person reporting takes readers on a journey from military outposts to ancient Inuit towns to scientific stations. He traces how the US, Russia, China and other members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) are repositioning themselves in the High North.

Rosen highlights the collision of environmental fragility and strategic ambition, showing how climate change is reshaping not only the Arctic landscape but also, through it, global power dynamics. He points out that the US needs to work with its European allies, rather than belittle them. As with his previous books, he weaves together field observations, interviews and historical context to chronicle the changes in a region that is rapidly becoming central to global security and diplomacy.

Polar War details how the war in Ukraine has profoundly reshaped Arctic states’ view of the High North. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a near-complete halt in cooperation between Moscow and the other Arctic Council members, effectively freezing the primary forum for dialogue. Russia has not been invited to an Arctic Council meeting since 2022, a move that has dealt a major blow to diplomacy.

Rosen reports that open borders have given way to heavily guarded boundaries, affecting the local populace, who worked together to survive in this tough environment until recently. This has led to able-bodied men trying to escape Russia, in small boats, even during hurricanes, to avoid conscription, something not seen since the fall of the Iron Curtain.

His visits to the military bases across the European Arctic show that the remaining Arctic states have accelerated military planning, strengthened regional alliances, and increased surveillance and infrastructure investments across the circumpolar north. NATO members now view the Arctic not only as a zone of climate vulnerability but also as a strategic frontier where deterrence and preparedness have become more essential than during the Cold War.

The ongoing conflict has made it clear that geopolitical stability in the Arctic can no longer be taken for granted and that there is deep mistrust between the Arctic nations.

Rosen details that the renewed aggressive strategic interest in Greenland by the US is worsening matters, and discussions about expanding American influence there are weakening long-term alliances. While not yet amounting to formal territorial claims, these moves have unsettled other Western-aligned Arctic states, who now view the US with greater caution.

For Denmark, Norway, and Finland, media-frenzied exclamations from the US, akin to those on reality TV, underscored how even allies can introduce new uncertainties into an already fragile geopolitical landscape. Unfortunately, through all this showboating, the will of the people of Greenland is effectively ignored, something the Inuit know all too well from experience with Denmark. The existing indigenous people are treated as nothing but pawns in this Arctic chess game.

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Rapidly rising temperatures are melting permafrost and destabilising existing structures.
(Anoop Mahajan)

Rosen notes that while the current US President is bullish about the Arctic, as he is with most things, his lofty plans to build an Arctic-specific military and acquire 11 icebreakers (compared to the two currently operating) face technical hurdles, including a lack of American expertise to build them. He shares his experience aboard the US’s largest and most technologically advanced icebreaker, USCGC Healy, which shows that the US has very little experience surviving in the Arctic, let alone waging warfare on its own. He shows that past and current military training exercises clearly demonstrate the need for the US to work with its NATO partners, who have decades of experience in the region. Thus, the book highlights that the Arctic is no longer just a site of East-West tension but a region where intra-alliance dynamics must be managed carefully.

During his journeys across the Arctic, Rosen joins a few scientists as they collect valuable data in harsh conditions and highlights how, while the geopolitical tensions rise, the Arctic’s fragile ecology has become little more than an afterthought.

As the Arctic warms at almost four times the global average, one can see the effects in melting sea ice, collapsing permafrost, shifting ecosystems, and stressed wildlife populations, and yet, these realities are overshadowed by military posturing and strategic calculations. The scramble for shipping lanes, minerals, and influence has pushed ecological stewardship to the margins, even as the Arctic’s environmental health remains central to global climate stability. He notes with stark irony how, while nations prepare for an ice-free Arctic to advance their strategic interests, the very ecosystems that make the region unique and sustain Indigenous communities are being destabilised.

This geopolitical hardening stands in contrast to the long tradition of scientific collaboration that once defined the Arctic. For decades, research stations such as Ny Ålesund in Svalbard embodied a uniquely cooperative model. Scientists from multiple nations have been working together to understand the Arctic through painstaking observations in atmospheric science, glaciology, oceanography, biology, ecology, and climate, regardless of political tensions elsewhere. India, too, maintains a permanent scientific base here. Himadri, established in 2008, contributes to atmospheric and cryospheric research in partnership with other countries and has led to important discoveries about teleconnections from the Arctic to the Indian subcontinent. The growing fractures described in Polar War sit uneasily against this history of shared scientific purpose.

Polar War reads like a warning to the US. The book shows that Russia and China have clarity and ambition, with a well-thought-out execution plan, giving them an early start, while the West-aligned nations still decide their priorities. The book also highlights how the Arctic is at the mercy of global forces, whether through climate change or geopolitical ambitions.

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Polar War: Submarines, Spies, and the Struggle for Power in a Melting Arctic: By Kenneth R. Rosen, Simon & Schuster, 320 pages, 999.

At times, the book reads like a collection of essays rather than a cohesive narrative, and themes such as militarisation, climate urgency, and geopolitical rivalry recur across all the chapters. For readers unfamiliar with Arctic issues, the lack of a clear narrative arc may make the book feel fragmented, even fictional, despite the very real geopolitical stakes it describes. With tighter editing and a clear storyline, the insights could have landed with even greater force.

That said, this book is important, even for readers in India. Since 2013, India has been an Arctic Council Observer (thankfully, our leaders had the necessary foresight) and is formally recognised by the Arctic Council as a contributor to Arctic science, policy discussions, and environmental stewardship, without decision-making authority. Through this position, India is expanding its scientific, strategic, and economic interests in the region by establishing permanent research stations in different parts of the Arctic and influencing governance decisions of the Arctic Council. This matters because changes in the Arctic affect India in multiple ways, including by influencing the monsoon and extreme weather over the subcontinent and hence have direct economic impacts on the country.

Polar War, thus, offers essential context for most people who do not know why the Arctic matters to us. The book also helps Indian readers and administrators understand the geopolitical landscape they are entering, where climate impacts, resource competition and power politics intersect, shaping trade routes, resource exploitation and global strategic positioning in the decades ahead.

Anoop Mahajan is a scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, and conducts research on climate change, with a focus on the polar regions. He has led and participated in multiple scientific expeditions to the Arctic, Antarctic and the Southern Ocean.

Also Read | Polar bears, climate change and responsible travel in the Arctic

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