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Will an LLM take away your job?
The Future of Jobs Report 2023, released by the World Economic Forum (WEF) in April, revealed that business leaders expect 23% of global jobs to change in the next five years. It suggested, among other things, that the highest job growth in 2023-2027 will be for agricultural equipment operators, drivers of heavy trucks and buses, and vocational education teachers, followed by mechanics and machinery repairers and business development professionals.
WEF expects jobs for agricultural professionals to rise by 30% in the coming five years, spurred by the increasing use of agricultural technologies and investments in climate change. The education sector, too, is expected to see an increase in jobs, with more people taking up courses to upgrade their skills in AI and other technologies.
In a white paper released jointly with Accenture, WEF now talks specifically about the impact of large language models (LLMs) on jobs. It posits that with 62% of total work time involving language-based tasks, the widespread adoption of LLMs, such as ChatGPT, could significantly impact a broad spectrum of job roles. The study analyzed over 19,000 individual tasks across 867 occupations, assessing the potential exposure of each task to LLM adoption.
Not surprisingly, the analysis reveals that tasks with the highest potential for automation by LLMs tend to be routine and repetitive, while those with the highest potential for augmentation require abstract reasoning and problem-solving skills. Tasks with lower potential for exposure require a high degree of personal interaction and collaboration.
1. High potential for automation: Tasks will be performed by LLMs, not humans.
The jobs that are at most risk of being automated are Credit Authorizers, Checkers and Clerks (81% of work time could be automated), Management Analysts (70%), Telemarketers (68%), Statistical Assistants (61%), and Tellers (60%).
Source: WEF, Accenture white paper
Goldman Sachs predicts that generative AI could expose 300 million full-time jobs to automation, while a Microsoft report says 74% of Indian workers are worried that AI will replace their jobs. Jobs of content creators, artists, media persons, coders, customer care agents, bank tellers, postal service clerks, data entry operators, and paralegals appear to be most impacted.
McKinsey corroborates that one in 16 workers may have to switch occupations by 2030, which is more than 100 million workers across the eight economies it studied and referred to in its report on the future of work. It noted that job growth will be more concentrated in high-skill jobs (for example, in healthcare or science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) fields), while middle- and low-skill jobs (such as food service, production work, or office support roles) will decline.
In August, McKinsey said those working in the technology and financial services sector are the most likely to expect disruptive change from Generative AI simply because industries relying most heavily on knowledge work are likely to see more disruption while potentially reaping more value at the same time. These include tech companies, banking, pharmaceuticals, medical products, and education.
2. High potential for augmentation: Humans will continue to perform the task, and LLMs will increase human productivity.
Jobs that can be augmented the most with automation include Insurance Underwriters (100% of work time potentially augmented), Bioengineers and Biomedical Engineers (84%), Mathematicians (80%), and Editors (72%).
3. Low potential for automation or augmentation: Humans will continue to perform the task with no significant impact from LLMs.
Jobs with lower potential for automation or augmentation are jobs that are expected to remain largely unchanged, such as Educational, Guidance, and Career Counsellors and Advisers (84% of time spent on low exposure tasks), Clergy (84%), Paralegals and Legal Assistants (83%), and Home Health Aides (75%). That said, non-language tasks, or those that emphasize physical movement such as loading products, materials or equipment for transport, assembly activities, agricultural activities, and grooming and hairstyling, are unlikely to see any impact. You may read the complete report here.
As Martin Ford, author of Rule of the Robots: How Artificial Intelligence Will Transform Everything, told the BBC, “The white-collar employee’s future is more threatened than the Uber driver because we still don’t have self-driving cars, but AI can certainly write reports.” You may read the article here.
4. New roles
According to the white paper, LLMs are also likely to create new roles within the categories of AI Developers, Interface and Interaction Designers, AI Content Creators, Data Curators, and AI Ethics and Governance Specialists.
5. Sectoral impact
Three of the top five industries planning to adopt AI technologies are those with the greatest exposure to LLMs – namely, insurance and pension management, information technology services, and media, entertainment and sports, according to the report.
Conclusion The white paper recommends that businesses and governments take proactive steps in preparing the workforce for the imminent transformation to ensure that all members of society benefit from the potential of generative AI.
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