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Home / Money / Personal Finance /  Gold price rebounds after retracement. Good opportunity to buy, say experts
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Gold price today: After hitting $1,852 per ounce levels in spot market last week, gold price witnessed retracement after the profit-booking trigger, but after the announcement of 25 bps interest rate hike by the Bank of England and crude oil prices surpassing $90 per barrel, the yellow metal price has rebounded and closed above $1800 per ounce in spot market on Friday. MCX gold rate also appreciated 31 per 10 gm and closed at 47,948 levels.

According to commodity market experts, overall trend for gold price is bullish as soaring crude oil prices have put global inflation concern at alarming level forcing Bank of England to increase interest rate by 25 bps. Similarly, European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve are hawkish on interest rate hike but recent appreciation in Euro and Pound against the US Dollar (USD) is going to support gold price rally further. They said that US is putting pressure on the OPEC countries to increase oil drilling but OPEC countries may not comply with the US government's demand as their drilling cost has gone too high that rise in crude oil would help them pare the losses incurred due to lower oil prices and rise in their drilling cost.

Speaking on gold price outlook; Amit Sajeja, Vice President — Research at Motilal Oswal said, "Outlook for gold price is positive and any dip in gold price should be seen as buying opportunity. Spot gold price has been able to hold above $1780 per ounce for last one month that signals that immediate support for spot gold price is a strong support for the yellow metal. It is now having strong resistance at $1855 levels. So, gold price in the international market is trading in the range of $1780 to $1855 per ounce levels these days and once it sustains above $1865 levels, it may soon go up to $1900 to $1910 levels. So, those who have short-term vision can book profit at around $1855 levels whereas those who have a medium to long-term view should wait for next breakout at $1865 levels, which is expected by end of one month."

Amit Sajeja of Motilal Oswal said that Goldman Sachs is also bullish on gold price this year as it has upgraded its spot gold price target to $2100 per ounce levels.

On domestic gold price outlook; Anuj Gupta, Vice President — Commodity & Currency Trade at IIFL Securities said, "After retracement in last week, gold price is expected to bounce back as soaring crude oil prices are expected to fuel global inflation further at alarming levels. As crude oil prices have surpassed $90 per barrel levels, various central banks including US Fed increasing interest rate might not work and hence gold price may further scale northward. MCX gold rates have strong support at 47,200 per 10 gm levels whereas it has immediate support at 47,600 per 10 gm. One can buy gold at around 47,900 48,000 levels for immediate target of 48,700 to 48,800 per 10 gm levels. Once gold price breaks this hurdle at CMX, it may go up to 49,200 to 49,300 per 10 gm in next 15 days to one month."

Anuj Gupta of IIFL Securities said that US government has been putting pressure on the OPEC countries to increase oil production but OPEC countries are unlikely to follow shoot. He said that oil drilling cost has gone up in OPEC countries and hence rise in crude oil prices is conducive for them and hence they may not agree to increase oil production.

Speaking on triggers that will fuel gold price in near term, Amit Sajeja of Motilal Oswal said, "Euro and Pound constitute around 70 per cent of the Dollar index. Bank of England has recently announced 25 bps interest rate hike whereas European Central Bank is also hawkish on interest rate hike. This has led to sharp upside movement in Euro and Pound leading to slide in Dollar Index. This is expected to fuel gold price in near term as demand for US Dollar got muted and it may remain under selloff heat in near term."

Reminding experts about what had happened when Fed had gone hawking on interest rates, commodity experts replied, “When Fed went hawkish on the interest rates, USD was expected to become strong but after the interest rate raise by ECB and BoE, USD will become weak, which is good for gold price." They went on to add that Euro and Pound constitute 70 per cent of the Dollar Index and after the interest rate hike by ECB and BoE, these two currencies will gain against USD and demand for USD is expected to go down in the currency market.

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