SpaceX surges past $2 trillion in Nasdaq debut: How much your ₹5 lakh investment could be worth by 2030

Several high-profile initial public offerings (IPOs) are scheduled for 2026, but none is bigger than SpaceX.

SpaceX shares jumped 19% in their Nasdaq debut on Friday, sending the company's value past $2 trillion to make it the sixth-biggest U.S. company by value and turning Elon Musk into the world's first trillionaire.

Investors jumped at the chance to get a piece of Musk's sprawling empire spanning rockets, satellites and AI after the record-setting $75 billion IPO. More than 510 million shares worth about $84 billion changed hands, even though SpaceX is currently unprofitable and generated only a fraction of the revenue brought in by similarly valued tech giants.

"For many investors, SpaceX is the closest thing to investing in the railroads during the Industrial Revolution and they are willing to pay the Elon Musk premium for that opportunity," Seth Hickle, chief investment officer at Mindset Wealth Management in Indianapolis told Reuters

The shares ended the day at $160.95 a share to bring its value to $2.1 trillion. The gain pushed SpaceX's market value past Broadcom, with Amazon next in line at $2.6 trillion.

Now, let's say you decide to make a sizable investment and buy ₹5 lakh worth of shares in this space stock right away. How much could that be worth in 2030?

What will happen with SpaceX stock? And, how will they be valued in 2030?

In a best-case scenario, SpaceX could continue expanding Starlink, make its launch business more profitable. In that case, the company could generate annual returns of 25%-30%, potentially pushing its market value to $5 trillion by 2030.

However, a more realistic outcome may be more modest. SpaceX could deliver lower returns—or even lose value. Morningstar estimates the company's fair value at about $780 billion, well below its projected market capitalization. Here are a few scenarios showing what SpaceX and a ₹5 lakh investment could be worth by 2030.

If SpaceX delivers the bull-case outcome, generating annual returns of 25%-30% and reaching a valuation of $5 trillion by 2030, a ₹5 lakh investment could grow to about ₹14.28 lakh.

In a more moderate scenario, where the company delivers returns of around 5% and reaches a valuation of roughly $2.2 trillion, the same ₹5 lakh investment would be worth about ₹6.08 lakh.

However, if the company underperforms and investors face a 20% annual loss, the investment could shrink to ₹2.05 lakh by 2030.

• Bull case (25%-30% annual returns): ₹5 lakh could grow to ₹14.28 lakh
• Moderate case (5% annual returns): ₹5 lakh could become ₹6.08 lakh
• Bear case (20% annual loss): ₹5 lakh could fall to ₹2.05 lakh

What analysts said?

Analysts and portfolio managers said investors should brace for volatility, particularly early in SpaceX's life as a public company, due to its small relative float and high valuation. SpaceX's $18.7 billion in revenue gives the company a price-to-revenue ratio of roughly 112, far above other megacap stocks.

"The question remains is, what happens in a couple of weeks from now. Right now, people want to bid the stock higher because it's a winner at this point. Whether it stays that way, that remains to be seen," Todd Schoenberger, chief investment officer at Crosscheck Management in Washington, D.C., told Reuters.