Investors often spend years waiting for the "perfect entry point" or panic at the first sign of a market downturn. Yet one lesson from more than two decades in financial markets stands out: time in the market, not timing the market, is the foundation of wealth creation.
Attempting to time the market is like trying to predict the start of the Mumbai monsoon, which is unpredictable. Even seasoned professionals struggle to predict short-term movements, as markets are swayed by geopolitical shifts, published economic data, a financial crisis, and even a viral tweet or comment.
Consider this: In a study of the Nifty 50 since 2005, we looked at instances where the index registered a 10% drawdown. In previous 15 such instances, 13 times the index, one year later, gave a positive return. There were only two instances of negative returns. The index gave average 1-year returns of 18% after a 10% drawdown.
So, hold tight through volatility. This advice is very difficult to follow emotionally, as any behavioural psychologist will tell you, but sometimes resisting the urge to react and continuing to act with patience and resolve is what determines the final outcome for your wealth creation journey.
You don’t lose money when the market panics. You lose money when you panic.
Let's understand this with data between 2005 and 2025, where we have taken 15 different days across different years when the market dropped by 10%. From each of these dates, we calculated the returns one year later. Out of 15 dates, 11 times the market rebounded to deliver double-digit returns. Most recently, markets dropped 10% on 4 March 2025, but delivered 11% returns just one year later from that day.
This reminds me of a recent gathering where an interesting scene unfolded. A gentleman seated in the front row watched snacks being served from the back of the room. By the time they reached him, there was nothing left. Determined not to miss out again, he moved to the back when drinks were served—only to discover they were being distributed from the front. Then a woman approached carrying a bowl. Still hopeful, he stretched out his hand - only to receive a toothpick!
Moral of the story: Don’t try to position yourself and time the markets. If you are disciplined and patient, good returns will come to you. Constantly repositioning yourself in the hope of perfect timing often leaves you worse off. Patience and discipline tend to be rewarded.
Giving your portfolio time is one of the best investment choices you can make, as equities require a long-term investment horizon to truly perform. A study of rolling returns for the Nifty 50 Total Return Index for the 26-year period from the index’s inception in June 1999 shows that if you had a holding period of seven years then there is not a single instance of negative returns. Moreover, the average rolling return over the 7-year period was 15%, per internal research data on 20 April, 2026
Wealth isn’t built in sprints - it’s a marathon. The markets reward patience. Focus on what you can control - time, consistency, and emotional discipline. Let the market handle the rest.
Sanjay Grover, MD & CEO, Baroda BNP Paribas Asset Management India Pvt. Ltd. Views are personal.