Tax refunds jump 22% so far, claims Scott Bessent – what should filers look for this season?

The average tax refund has risen by 22% so far this season, Treasury Secretary and acting IRS Commissioner Scott Bessent told CNBC on Friday.

The tax season for 2026 began on 26 January, and the IRS has not yet released official filing data. It remains unclear how many days of returns Bessent’s figure reflects or what comparison period he used.

What is tax refund?

Filers usually get a refund if they overpay taxes through paycheck withholdings or estimated payments during the year, while they owe a balance if their payments are insufficient.

What does recent refund trend reveal?

Early data can be deceiving, wrote Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy for the Bipartisan Policy Centre, a nonprofit think tank, in a tax season guide on 22 January.

In recent years, IRS data shows smaller refunds at the start of the tax season, but those payments have grown significantly in mid-February when the IRS begins issuing refunds that include the earned income tax credit or the additional child tax credit, Lautz noted.

He mentioned that after the February peak, the average refund had declined slightly by the 15 April deadline.

“It is important to note that early data can be deceiving—in recent filing seasons, average refunds have been smaller at the start of the filing season, risen sharply in mid-February once the IRS is legally allowed to issue Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and refundable CTC refunds, and then declined slightly from a February peak through Tax Day,” he wrote.

As of 17 October, the average refund for individual filers was $3,052, according to the IRS.

Bigger tax refunds expected

The amount of tax refunds in the 2026 tax refund season has been a key political issue as the midterm elections approach.

US President Donald Trump has claimed that 2026 will mark the largest tax refund season of all time due to changes implemented through his big beautiful bill.

Trump's bill introduced new tax breaks for 2025, but the IRS did not update paycheck withholdings, which could potentially result in refunds for many workers. However, there may be significant variation among taxpayers, according to a report by CNBC, citing Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation.

The report further added that your refund or balance due depends on the applicable new tax breaks and the total amount you paid during the year.