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Home >Money >Personal Finance >Which way will India’s growth, inflation, gold and Sensex move in 2020?
File photos of Madan Sabnavis, RM Vishakha and Ramesh Nair
File photos of Madan Sabnavis, RM Vishakha and Ramesh Nair

Which way will India’s growth, inflation, gold and Sensex move in 2020?

  • Here is what experts feel the way will India’s growth, inflation, gold and Sensex move in 2020

Madan Sabnavis, Chief economist, CARE Ratings

Madan Sabnavis, Chief economist, CARE Ratings
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Madan Sabnavis, Chief economist, CARE Ratings

GDP growth (FY21) 6-6.5%

CPI inflation (FY21) 4-4.5%

Gold (FY21) $1,500-1,550/ounce

Sensex (FY21) 43,000

GDP growth will be aided by limited recovery in some sectors and the base effect. Core inflation will rise as pricing power is restored for companies. Food inflation will be contained due to the base effect, but there can be single product shocks. Sensex will gradually move upwards driven by recovery in corporate profitability, uptick in GDP, stable global conditions and continuation of pro-growth policies by the government.

R.M. Vishakha, MD and CEO, IndiaFirst Life Insurance

R.M. Vishakha, MD and CEO, IndiaFirst Life Insurance
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R.M. Vishakha, MD and CEO, IndiaFirst Life Insurance

GDP growth (FY21) 6.3%

CPI inflation (FY21) 3.4%

Gold (FY21) $1,600/ounce

Sensex (FY21) 46,200

Thanks to government initiatives and the demographic advantage that India has, growth opportunities are huge. Life insurance continues to be an under-penetrated segment; the protection gap at 92% is among the highest in the world. We feel bullish on the prospects of the financial services industry. With tailwinds on its side, we expect life insurance premiums to grow at 12-15% CAGR over two-three years.

Ramesh Nair, CEO and country head, India, JLL

Ramesh Nair, CEO and country head, India, JLL
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Ramesh Nair, CEO and country head, India, JLL

GDP growth (FY21) 6%

CPI inflation (FY21) 4%

Gold No comments

Sensex No comments

GDP, which recently hit a six-year low, is expected to gain traction in FY21 and hover around 6% with a downward bias as the government’s reforms materialize. The concern over rising retail inflation is going to moderate and CPI is likely to remain at around 4%—well within RBI’s target. Listed real estate companies are expected to grow stronger on the back of improved corporatization and consolidation in the sector.

Shanti Ekambaram, president, consumer banking, Kotak Mahindra Bank

Shanti Ekambaram, president, consumer banking, Kotak Mahindra Bank
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Shanti Ekambaram, president, consumer banking, Kotak Mahindra Bank

GDP growth (FY21) 5.5-6%

CPI inflation (FY21) 4.6%

Gold (FY21) $1,480-1,750/ounce

Sensex (FY21) 9-10% rise from Dec 2019

The first half of FY21 will continue to be challenging. The economy has twin challenges of low investment and slowing consumption demand. Economic recovery will likely see traction in the second half of FY21. It is expected that the budget will provide a fillip to both investment and consumption. Inflation is also likely to stay above RBI’s medium-term target of 4% and should start to taper off in the second half of FY21.

Swarup Mohanty, CEO, Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India)

Swarup Mohanty, CEO, Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India)
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Swarup Mohanty, CEO, Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India)

GDP growth (FY21) 5.5-6%

CPI inflation (FY21) 3-4.5%

Gold No comments

Sensex No comments

We expect gradual recovery in the demand environment in calender year 2020 driven by low interest rates, government spending and rural recovery. Investors should not time the market and invest in a disciplined way for the long term, within their asset allocation, in consultation with an adviser. Those with a two-three-year horizon will be able to make better returns than in the previous couple of years,


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