Debby to Slam Into Florida, Touching Off a Week of Disaster

(Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Debby will strengthen into a hurricane overnight as it nears a Monday landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region, where residents have fled ahead of a potential weeklong disaster across the South. 

Debby’s top winds held at 65 miles (105 kilometers) per hour through Sunday but are expected to reach 85 mph, or Category 1 strength, as it nears the coast. It’s likely to push as much as 10 feet (3 meters) of water inland and drop as much as a foot of rain, the National Hurricane Center said in a 5 p.m. advisory. 

“This is a life-threatening situation,” Richard Pasch, a senior hurricane specialist at the center, wrote in a forecast. “Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and South Carolina through Friday morning will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding.”

President Joe Biden declared an emergency in Florida and ordered federal resources to help the state, the White House said. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Georgia Governor Brian Kemp have declared emergencies in their states as Debby moves north. Florida’s Dixie County ordered coastal residents to flee starting at 2 p.m. Sunday, and adjacent Taylor County has opened shelters.

Florida coastal areas may see upward of $250 million in damage and losses. If the storm causes widespread flooding across the South, particularly around Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, South Carolina, the tally may rise as high as $1 billion, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler at Enki Research. 

As of 5 p.m., Debby was about 120 miles west of Tampa. The danger for the coast has increased because there’s a chance the storm will rapidly intensify, with winds possibly jumping by about 35 mph in 24 hours, said Ryan Truchelut, president of commercial forecaster WeatherTiger. 

Debby’s forward progress has slowed, meaning it will have more time to build in strength as it stays over warm Gulf waters for longer, said Matt Rinde, a meteorologist with commercial forecaster AccuWeather Inc. 

While lingering over water may bolster the storm, the hurricane center has said it also encountered dry air, which has sapped it of some strength. 

There will likely be widespread power outages across parts of Florida, but the storm itself will be too far east to affect offshore oil and natural gas operations in the western Gulf of Mexico, sparing energy markets any great shock. Debby is 2024’s fourth storm and will be the second hurricane to hit the US this year.

Western Florida in recent years has been battered by storms including Category 5 Michael in 2018 — which killed at least 16 people in the US — and Ian, which struck as a Category 4 storm in 2022, leaving more than 160 dead. A year ago, Hurricane Idalia made landfall in the Big Bend area as a Category 3 hurricane. 

Warm ocean water across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico has raised the alarm that this will be a very active Atlantic storm season. In typical years, the fourth tropical system usually doesn’t arrive until mid-August.

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After Debby comes ashore, it will meander across northern Florida and southern Georgia for days before possibly reemerging over the Atlantic on Aug. 7 and making a second landfall Aug. 8 in South Carolina. Its onshore winds will push water into the coastline and prevent local rivers from draining flooding rains from the interior, Rinde said.

In addition to Debby, forecasters are watching a second potential Atlantic storm that may push into the western Caribbean later this week and has a 20% chance of becoming the season’s next storm. 

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