Foreign carriers flew more passengers out of India in the first six months of 2026 compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, home-grown carriers, including Air India and IndiGo, flew fewer planes on international routes and lost market share after facing higher costs from the Pakistan airspace closure and increased jet fuel prices amid the West Asia war.

Domestic airlines accounted for 39.7% of passengers flying out of India in January-June 2026, down from 46% a year earlier, data from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) show. Foreign airlines, meanwhile, increased their share to 60.3% from 54%, even as the overall outbound international market contracted.

Simply put, foreign airlines flew about 450,000 more passengers out of India in the first six months of the year, even as Indian carriers lost 1.76 million. As a result, domestic airlines bore the brunt of the market drop and scaled back their flights.

The five Indian carriers that have international operations are IndiGo, Air India, Air India Express, Akasa and SpiceJet. In comparison, there are 78 foreign carriers with operations in India, the largest being Emirates, Etihad and Singapore Airlines.

Domestic gloom

This shift occurred as Indian airlines scaled back international capacity. Domestic carriers operated 87,768 international departures from India in the first half of 2026—a 19% drop (or 20,114 fewer flights) compared to 107,882 in the same period last year.

Consequently, total international passengers flying out of India fell 7% year-on-year, from 19.71 million to 18.40 million. Indian airlines carried 7.3 million passengers from India in the first six months of 2026, down 19.4% from 9.06 million a year earlier. Foreign carriers, in contrast, carried 11.1 million passengers, up 4.2% from 10.65 million. DGCA does not share departures by foreign carriers from India.

The decline is visible across all Indian carriers, barring Akasa Air. Cash-strapped SpiceJet ‘s departures were down 41% over last year, from 4,377 to 2,604. Passenger count fell 42%, from 360,000 to 210,000.

Air India group, which includes Air India and low-cost carrier Air India Express, saw combined international departures fall 26% to 39,136 in January-June from 53,487 a year earlier. Their passenger numbers fell 27% to 3.30 million from 4.54 million a year earlier.

Air India, whose long-haul westward routes took the heaviest hit, had previously warned that a one-year closure of Pakistani airspace could cost it nearly ₹4,000 crore. The airline began cutting routes in April as group-level losses surged past ₹22,000 crore. It expects to start restoring these rationalized routes from September onward.

IndiGo’s international departures fell 10% to 43,353 in the first half 2026 from 48,082 a year earlier, while international departures declined 9% to 3.64 million passengers from 3.98 a year earlier. Although a smaller capacity cut leaves IndiGo better positioned than some rivals, the airline is still grappling with higher international flying costs driven by longer flight paths.

Akasa’s international departures increased about 38% to 2,675 in the first half of 2026, from 1,936 a year earlier. Its international passenger numbers increased to 190,000 from 150,000 a year earlier.

Foreign resilience

International players stepped in to absorb the demand, and market gains were not limited to Gulf carriers. Outbound passenger data from India reveals that several major foreign airlines maintained or expanded their passenger traffic.

Emirates, the largest foreign carrier in India, held broadly stable, carrying 1.40 million passengers from India in January-June 2026 compared with 1.44 million a year earlier. Etihad carried 830,000 (up from 800,000), while Singapore Airlines grew to 680,000 (from 640,000). Lufthansa increased its traffic to 400,000 from 380,000 million, while Cathay Pacific rose sharply to 330,000 from 270,000. Swiss and KLM also saw their India traffic rise to 100,000 and 180,000, respectively, from 80,000 and 160,000.

Together, these seven carriers moved about 3.92 million passengers from India in the first six months of 2026, a 4% increase from 3.77 million a year earlier. The resilience of these major foreign airlines contrasts sharply with the roughly 19% drop in traffic suffered by Indian carriers.

External shocks

Airline leaders across domestic and foreign carriers have described the past year as exceptionally tough for Indian aviation, citing severe external disruptions. During the company’s annual general meeting, IndiGo chief executive Pieter Elbers characterized the operating environment over the past 12 to 18 months as an "extreme set of external conditions”. Echoing that view, Goh Choon Phong, CEO of Singapore Airlines, which holds a 25.1% stake in Air India, noted that the challenges facing Air India were "largely external”.

The closure of Pakistani airspace drove up operating costs for Indian airlines far beyond mere extra fuel consumption. Longer flight times also pushed up crew expenses and navigation fees, while sharply reducing aircraft utilization.

“The recent decline in share of Indian carriers should be seen primarily as event-driven rather than a structural loss of competitiveness,” said Jainam Shah, an aviation analyst at brokerage firm Equirus Securities.

Citing the West Asia conflict as the main trigger for surging fuel costs, Shah said that higher operating expenses affected the economics of international flying. “Indian carriers responded by rationalising capacity, prioritising yields and margins over passenger volumes, resulting in temporary decline in share,” Shah said.

Temporary dip or structural shift?

Ratings agency ICRA Ltd wrote in a 21 August report that international passenger traffic “declined sharply by 23% year-on-year in 4M FY27 (April-July 2026)”, attributing it to “disruptions caused by the West Asian conflict”. It added, “The international air passenger traffic for Indian carriers is projected to witness a 3-6% decline in FY27 (April-March).”

Equirus’s Shah explained that before covid, foreign carriers accounted for around two-thirds of India’s international passenger traffic. But their share fell to 38% in FY21 and 51% in FY22, before recovering and broadly stabilising at around 55% during FY23-FY26.

“The current decline in Indian carriers’ share to below 40% is therefore more of a deviation from the recent normal than evidence of a structural shift in the market,” he said.

Shah added that Indian carriers should be able to restore international capacity. “Given the underlying demand for international travel from India and the continued expansion of Indian airlines, we believe a meaningful part of the lost share should return to Indian carriers.”

The ministry of civil aviation, DGCA, and the country’s three major airlines—Air India, IndiGo and Akasa Air—were yet to respond to queries from Mint at the time of publishing.

Foreign carriers flew more passengers out of India in the first six months of 2026 compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, home-grown carriers, including Air India and IndiGo, flew fewer planes on international routes and lost market share after facing higher costs from the Pakistan airspace closure and increased jet fuel prices amid the West Asia war.

Domestic airlines accounted for 39.7% of passengers flying out of India in January-June 2026, down from 46% a year earlier, data from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) show. Foreign airlines, meanwhile, increased their share to 60.3% from 54%, even as the overall outbound international market contracted.

Simply put, foreign airlines flew about 450,000 more passengers out of India in the first six months of the year, even as Indian carriers lost 1.76 million. As a result, domestic airlines bore the brunt of the market drop and scaled back their flights.

The five Indian carriers that have international operations are IndiGo, Air India, Air India Express, Akasa and SpiceJet. In comparison, there are 78 foreign carriers with operations in India, the largest being Emirates, Etihad and Singapore Airlines.

Domestic gloom

This shift occurred as Indian airlines scaled back international capacity. Domestic carriers operated 87,768 international departures from India in the first half of 2026—a 19% drop (or 20,114 fewer flights) compared to 107,882 in the same period last year.

Consequently, total international passengers flying out of India fell 7% year-on-year, from 19.71 million to 18.40 million. Indian airlines carried 7.3 million passengers from India in the first six months of 2026, down 19.4% from 9.06 million a year earlier. Foreign carriers, in contrast, carried 11.1 million passengers, up 4.2% from 10.65 million. DGCA does not share departures by foreign carriers from India.

The decline is visible across all Indian carriers, barring Akasa Air. Cash-strapped SpiceJet ‘s departures were down 41% over last year, from 4,377 to 2,604. Passenger count fell 42%, from 360,000 to 210,000.

Air India group, which includes Air India and low-cost carrier Air India Express, saw combined international departures fall 26% to 39,136 in January-June from 53,487 a year earlier. Their passenger numbers fell 27% to 3.30 million from 4.54 million a year earlier.

Air India, whose long-haul westward routes took the heaviest hit, had previously warned that a one-year closure of Pakistani airspace could cost it nearly ₹4,000 crore. The airline began cutting routes in April as group-level losses surged past ₹22,000 crore. It expects to start restoring these rationalized routes from September onward.

IndiGo’s international departures fell 10% to 43,353 in the first half 2026 from 48,082 a year earlier, while international departures declined 9% to 3.64 million passengers from 3.98 a year earlier. Although a smaller capacity cut leaves IndiGo better positioned than some rivals, the airline is still grappling with higher international flying costs driven by longer flight paths.

Akasa’s international departures increased about 38% to 2,675 in the first half of 2026, from 1,936 a year earlier. Its international passenger numbers increased to 190,000 from 150,000 a year earlier.

Foreign resilience

International players stepped in to absorb the demand, and market gains were not limited to Gulf carriers. Outbound passenger data from India reveals that several major foreign airlines maintained or expanded their passenger traffic.

Emirates, the largest foreign carrier in India, held broadly stable, carrying 1.40 million passengers from India in January-June 2026 compared with 1.44 million a year earlier. Etihad carried 830,000 (up from 800,000), while Singapore Airlines grew to 680,000 (from 640,000). Lufthansa increased its traffic to 400,000 from 380,000 million, while Cathay Pacific rose sharply to 330,000 from 270,000. Swiss and KLM also saw their India traffic rise to 100,000 and 180,000, respectively, from 80,000 and 160,000.

Together, these seven carriers moved about 3.92 million passengers from India in the first six months of 2026, a 4% increase from 3.77 million a year earlier. The resilience of these major foreign airlines contrasts sharply with the roughly 19% drop in traffic suffered by Indian carriers.

External shocks

Airline leaders across domestic and foreign carriers have described the past year as exceptionally tough for Indian aviation, citing severe external disruptions. During the company’s annual general meeting, IndiGo chief executive Pieter Elbers characterized the operating environment over the past 12 to 18 months as an "extreme set of external conditions”. Echoing that view, Goh Choon Phong, CEO of Singapore Airlines, which holds a 25.1% stake in Air India, noted that the challenges facing Air India were "largely external”.

The closure of Pakistani airspace drove up operating costs for Indian airlines far beyond mere extra fuel consumption. Longer flight times also pushed up crew expenses and navigation fees, while sharply reducing aircraft utilization.

“The recent decline in share of Indian carriers should be seen primarily as event-driven rather than a structural loss of competitiveness,” said Jainam Shah, an aviation analyst at brokerage firm Equirus Securities.

Citing the West Asia conflict as the main trigger for surging fuel costs, Shah said that higher operating expenses affected the economics of international flying. “Indian carriers responded by rationalising capacity, prioritising yields and margins over passenger volumes, resulting in temporary decline in share,” Shah said.

Temporary dip or structural shift?

Ratings agency ICRA Ltd wrote in a 21 August report that international passenger traffic “declined sharply by 23% year-on-year in 4M FY27 (April-July 2026)”, attributing it to “disruptions caused by the West Asian conflict”. It added, “The international air passenger traffic for Indian carriers is projected to witness a 3-6% decline in FY27 (April-March).”

Equirus’s Shah explained that before covid, foreign carriers accounted for around two-thirds of India’s international passenger traffic. But their share fell to 38% in FY21 and 51% in FY22, before recovering and broadly stabilising at around 55% during FY23-FY26.

“The current decline in Indian carriers’ share to below 40% is therefore more of a deviation from the recent normal than evidence of a structural shift in the market,” he said.

Shah added that Indian carriers should be able to restore international capacity. “Given the underlying demand for international travel from India and the continued expansion of Indian airlines, we believe a meaningful part of the lost share should return to Indian carriers.”

The ministry of civil aviation, DGCA, and the country’s three major airlines—Air India, IndiGo and Akasa Air—were yet to respond to queries from Mint at the time of publishing.