India likely to raise its estimate on peak power demand amid harsher summers

New Delhi: India’s power ministry will likely raise its projections for peak electricity demand after this year’s prolonged heatwave forced people to keep their air conditioners and fans running for longer than usual.

Peak power demand in India surged to a record high of 250 GW on 30 May amid an unrelenting summer, closing in on the Central Electricity Authority’s projection of a peak demand of 260 GW for this year.

The current projection of peak power demand reaching 384 GW by financial year 2031-32 may now have to be revised, said Pankaj Agarwal, secretary, Union ministry of power.

“We have been receiving feedback that our (projection) of 384 GW may be an underestimate. That might be easily crossed,” he said, adding that peak power demand may even hit 400 GW by FY32.

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To meet that demand, India’s power generation capacity would have to increase to 900 GW from nearly 445 GW now, including both thermal and renewable energy sources, Agarwal said, speaking at Confederation of Indian Industry event on smart-metering.

States have been revising their peak power projections and the national demand estimate may be reflected in the updated National Electricity Plan, he said.

“We are updating the projections,” Agarwal said on the sidelines of the CII event. “Some of the states have already updated (their projections)... and very shortly we will be updating our National electricity plans.”

Harsher summers

Despite an ambitious plan to install 500 GW of non-fossil power generation capacity by 2030, India aims to add 80 GW of coal-based capacity by 2032 to meet the surging power demand.

“The current challenges the power sector is facing is financial viability of (power distribution companies) and renewable energy integration. Such issues must be addressed and resolved to achieve the vision of Viksit Bharat 2047,” Agarwal said, referring to the government’s ambition for India to become a developed nation by 2047.

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Demand for electricity has declined over the past two weeks with the advent of monsoon rains and lower temperatures. On Monday, the nationwide peak power demand was at 208 GW. However, several experts have warned that temperatures are rising globally and summers would be harsher.

Agarwal said that in the first quarter of 2024-25 (April-June), electricity demand had increased by about 9% in terms of megawatts as compared with the same year-ago period.