India Q4 GDP data: A recap of economic performance in past 4 quarters
2 min read 31 May 2023, 04:31 PM ISTThe GDP growth forecast for Q4 is 4.6 percent higher than the previous quarter's actual growth of 4.4 percent. There is optimism that India's GDP could exceed the initial advance estimate of 7 percent by the NSO.
PremiumThe Central government's National Statistical Office (NSO) is set to announce India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the January-March quarter (Q4FY2023) today i.e. 31 May.
Here are some highlights of the data of percentage change in GDP compared to the previous quarter.
Quarter four, January to March, 2023
In quarter four of January to March, 2023, the GDP forecast is 4.6 percent, which is above the actual growth of 4.4 percent of the previous quarter . The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has estimated the real GDP growth for Q4 to be around 5.1%. There is optimism that India's gross domestic product (GDP) could exceed its initial advance estimate of 7% by the NSO. The robust performance of services sectors such as travel and retail, coupled with the favourable impact of falling food prices and global oil price decline, has provided a significant boost to demand.
Quarter three, October to December, 2022
In third quarter, the Indian economy expanded by 4.4% , lower than the previous quarter's growth rate of 6.3% and slightly below market expectations of 4.6 percent. Private spending, which accounted for a significant portion of GDP, slowed down due to higher borrowing costs. Additionally, investment and government spending also grew at a slower pace, while both exports and imports lost momentum. However, the stock market experienced a slight rebound. On the production side, manufacturing contracted for the second time, while there was a slowdown in finance and real estate as well as trade, hotels, transport, and communication. In contrast, the mining sector rebounded, and there were faster increases in the agricultural, utilities, and construction sectors.
Quarter two, July to September, 2022
The data of GDP growth shows that in quarter two of July to September, 2022, the GDP growth rate was 6.3 percent , slightly higher than forecasted growth of 6.2 percent.
In third quarter 2022, the Indian economy grew by 6.3 percent, slightly exceeding forecasts but significantly lower than the previous quarter. COVID lockdown effects faded, but high prices, rising interest rates, and slowing global demand affected private spending, investment, exports, and imports. Stocks declined, public expenditure shrank, but government spending on infrastructure increased. Trade, hotels, transport, and communication saw the highest growth, while manufacturing and mining contracted.
Quarter one, April to June, 2022
In the first quarter of 2022, the Indian economy grew by 13.5 percent, falling short of market expectations of 15.2 percent. Among sectors, agriculture, forestry & fishing, electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services, financial, real estate & professional services, and public administration, defence & other services showed faster growth. However, there was a slowdown in mining & quarrying, manufacturing, construction, and trade, hotels, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting. On the expenditure side, household consumption and government expenditure increased, while gross fixed capital formation slowed. Net foreign demand had a negative impact, with exports rising but imports advancing at a faster pace.
Quarter four FY22, January to March, 2022
Lastly, in quarter four of January to March, 2022, the GDP growth was recorded at 4.1%, slightly higher than the forecasted growth of 4.0 percent, while previous quarter's realised estimate stood at 5.4 percent.
