The weather department has issued a heavy rainfall alert Lakshadweep and Kerala over the next two days and recommended total suspension of fishing operations in the Lakshadweep area and along and off Kerala-Karnataka coasts, south Tamil Nadu coasts till November 2, in its pre-cyclone watch.
The fresh low pressure area was formed over Comorin Area, near the southern-most end of the country and the adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean and became more well-marked early on Wednesday.
As per the latest forecast, the system has concentrated into a depression over Maldives- Comorin and adjoining Lakshadweep area about 200 km east-southeast of Minicoy (Lakshadweep), 380 km southeast of Kavaratti (Lakshadweep) and 220 km west-southwest of Thiruvananthapuram (Kerala).
It is expected to move north-westwards across Lakshadweep Islands during next 36 hours and could emerge into east-central Arabian Sea. “It is very likely to intensify into a Deep Depression during next 12 hours and into a Cyclonic Storm during the subsequent 12 hours, most likely by October 31 evening," as per IMD.
The latest forecast suggests that the system is rapidly gaining strength and could become a severe cyclonic storm on November 1.
The weather department has warned of extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places over Lakshadweep Islands and heavy rainfall over Kerala during next two days. Southern districts of Tamil Nadu. Pondicherry and coastal Karnataka could also receive moderate to heavy rainfall during the next two days.
Sea conditions will be very rough over Lakshadweep area during 31st October to 2nd November and IMD has advised fishermen not to venture into southeast and eastcentral Arabian Sea during the period. The coastal areas in Kerala, coastal Karnataka could witness winds gusting upto 55 kmph and low lying areas could get inundated.
“We have already issued a pre-cyclone watch, and we will continuously update the forecast as the system develops," said Director General of Meteorology (DGM), M Mohapatra.
While this is a cyclone season for the Indian Ocean, it is not very common for the cyclones to be forming so frequently. “It is not common, but it can happen when the Arabian Sea is more active and cyclones form after short intervals," said Mohapatra.
Cyclone Kyarr was the first Super Cyclone to have formed in the Arabian Sea in last 12 years after Super Cyclone Gonu in 2007 and was considered to be among the strongest so far. After forming in the east-central Arabian Sea, it began moving northwestwards towards Oman. As per recent forecasts, it is very likely to weaken into a Severe Cyclonic Storm and subsequently into a Cyclonic Storm by Thursday noon.