Amid El Nino concerns, are we expecting bad monsoon? Expert answers
The El Nino conditions are still developing and we are likely to face its effect on the second half of the year.
PremiumIndia is likely to witness normal rainfall in 2023 despite El Nino concerns. After three consecutive La Nina years, El Nino conditions are likely to follow this year. The El Nino conditions are still developing and we are likely to face its effect on the second half of the year.
Experts have cited, El Nino that follows a La Nina year tends to result in a significant rainfall deficit.
As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), normal rainfall (96 per cent of the long-period average of 87 cm) is expected during the southwest monsoon season bringing much relief to the agriculture sector. The prediction comes only a day after Skymet Weather predicted "below-normal" monsoon rains (94 per cent of the long-period average) due to the evolving El Nino conditions.
Raghu Murtugudde, visiting professor, Earth System Scientist at IIT Bombay and Emeritus Professor at University of Maryland, told news agency PTI, “So far, only 60% of El Nino years have recorded 'below normal' rainfall from in the June-September period" but, as per data, El Nino that follows a La Nina year tends to be very bad in terms of monsoon deficits
The scientist, however, said that despite three consecutive years of La Nina, the Eurasian precipitation has been slightly below normal which would favour a stronger monsoon and may offset the El Nino impact.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, IMD, had on Tuesday said that positive India Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are expected during the southwest monsoon season and the snow cover over the northern hemisphere and Eurasia has also been below normal from December 2022 to March 2023. Both these factors are considered favorable for the southwest monsoon.
According to the IMD, El Nino conditions are expected to develop around July, and their impact may be felt in the second half of the monsoon season.
The IOD is defined by the difference in the sea surface temperatures between the western parts of the Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern parts of the ocean near Indonesia.
"If at all there is any adverse impact due to the evolving El Nino conditions during the monsoon season, it is likely to be countered by the favourable impact of positive IOD and the lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere," the IMD chief had said.
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