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Vehicles ply on NH-24, during the nationwide lockdown imposed in the wake of coronavirus pandemic, in New Delhi (PTI)
Vehicles ply on NH-24, during the nationwide lockdown imposed in the wake of coronavirus pandemic, in New Delhi (PTI)

Mint Covid Tracker: At current trajectory, India’s case count likely to reach 100,000 in 7 days

The top five states - Maharashtra, TN, Gujarat, Delhi, and UP - now account for 77 percent of all active cases nationally

The number of reported coronavirus cases in India rose 13 percent over the past two days to 67,152, data from the morning update of the ministry of health and family welfare (MoHFW) showed. This is in line with the rate of increase compared to the previous 48 hours, when the reported case count rose 13 percent to 59,662.

After tapering last month, India’s coronavirus trajectory has picked up this month, with new infections and deaths rising faster in India than in most other countries.

India’s case count is now roughly double what it was eleven days ago. This is still slower compared to early-April, when cases were doubling every four days. Deaths have also seen slower rise compared to the trend in early-April but have picked up pace over the past couple of weeks. India’s death toll from covid-19 as of Monday morning was 2,206, roughly double what it was ten days ago.

At the current rate of compounded daily growth, the number of cases could rise to 100,000 in seven days. The continuing rise in cases pose a severe challenge for India’s strained medical capacity and overburdened health system.

At 17,140, Maharashtra leads in terms of the number of active cases, according to the health ministry update this morning. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.

Tamil Nadu has the second most number of active cases (5,198), followed by Gujarat (5,156). At 4,781 active cases, Delhi has the fourth-highest number of active cases, followed by Uttar Pradesh (1,740). The top five states together account for 77 percent of the active cases nationally, and the top ten states account for 94 percent of all cases.

Nationally, the active case count was 44,029 as of today morning. These are early days yet and the state-wise distribution could change in the coming days as testing gets ramped up across states.

Source: MoHFW
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Source: MoHFW


Over the past seven days,Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Punjab have seen the highest spike in cases among the top ten states with most cases. These three states account for 33 percent of all the new active cases in this period. Over the same period, fatalities have surged the most in West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat. These three states account for 46 percent of all covid-related deaths over the past seven days.

Among top ten states with most active cases, the case fatality rates are the highest in West Bengal (9.5%), Gujarat (6%), and Madhya Pradesh (6%). India’s case fatality rate now stands at 3.2%. Among all states, the case fatality rates are lowest in Tamil Nadu (0.7%), Odisha (0.7%), and Kerala (0.8%).

Over the past two days, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Chennai, Thane, and Indore districts have seen the biggest spike in confirmed cases nationally. These five districts account for 39 percent of new cases over this period, data compiled by howindialives.com last evening shows. Other districts that have seen a sharp spike over the past two days are Kancheepuram (Tamil Nadu), Kolkata, and Pune.

Source: NDMA
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Source: NDMA
Data: NDMA
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Data: NDMA

So far, 531 districts have confirmed cases in the country. Mumbai (13,691 cases) has reported the most number of cases nationally among all districts, followed by Ahmedabad (5,818) in Gujarat. Chennai (3,840) in Tamil Nadu, Pune (2,365) in Maharashtra, and Thane (2,257) in Maharashtra are the other leading districts. These top five districts now account for 42 percent of confirmed cases in the country.

Indore (1,858) in Madhya Pradesh, Jaipur (1,205) in Rajasthan, Kolkata (975) in West Bengal, Jodhpur (898) in Rajasthan, and Surat (895) in Gujarat are the other high-burden districts which figure in the list of top ten districts. The top ten districts account for 57 percent of the confirmed cases nationally.

Most of India’s hotspots so far have been urban affluent districts, with richer states hit harder than the rest.

The coronavirus case count has crossed 4.1 million globally even as several parts of the country and the world remain under lockdown to contain the pandemic.

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