Home >News >India >BofA Securities estimates 48% of India’s population be vaccinated by 2021

As India struggles to control the rapid spread of covid 19 cases in the country, BofA Securities believes that vaccine shortages will drive more approvals. The brokerage firm forecasts 34%, 40% and 48% of India’s population getting vaccinated by 2021 in bear, middle and bull scenarios respectively.

Analysts of BofA Securities have made the estimates based on vaccine capacity based on capacity guidance issued from companies and approval of four more vaccines including Cadila's indigenous vaccine and three foreign vaccines Johnson and Johnson/Biological E, Novavax/Serum Institute of India (SII) and Pfizer/BioNTech.

“Our covid market model projection of 440 million people vaccinated by 2021 is a bear case scenario and mainly relies on three approved vaccines at disposal. We forecast capacity increase to 90 million per month for Serum from July in bear case (current 70 million per month) and account for 100 million doses import by Dr. Reddy's of Sputnik V," it said in a report on 19 April.

In the estimates, analysts include minimal contribution from JNJ vaccine (facing clot issues and suspension across many countries) and no contribution from Pfizer (cold chain issues) and Novavax (still in trials) in bear case.

In middle case, analysts at BofA Securities expect from July, SII capacity to move to 100 million per month, doubling of Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin capacity and significant 200 million doses import of Sputnik V. In bull case they have included 120 million per month of Covishield, 12 million per month of Covaxin and full 250 million doses total import of Sputnik V.

“All these scenarios are adjusted for doses per vaccine, export share and adjustment factor of 10% for wastage and execution," the report said.

As of April 16, 2021 India had administered 120 million doses, decline of 12% over previous week due to vaccine shortages. Vaccine manufacturers have highlighted shortage of key raw materials which is holding back production ramp up.

Several states in India like Maharashtra, Punjab, Rajasthan and few others urged the government for more vaccine supplies. Currently, Covishield contributes 91% of total doses administered across 60,000 vaccination sites and is the leading vaccine.

In response to second wave, the government has approved Sputnik V and opened door for foreign vaccines to enter India quickly. Dr. Reddy's will import 250 million doses Sputnik V starting this quarter. Cadila will apply for approval its vaccine in June.

BofA analysis does not take into account contribution from other companies (Gland, Panacea Biotec, Stelis) contracted with RDIF on Sputnik V or possibility of tie-ups with companies with capacity (Aurobindo, Haffkine-Biotech) escalating doses available meaningfully in existing or future vaccines.

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