Covax cuts 2021 vaccine delivery forecast by 25% amid export curbs on SII

New Delhi: Covax, a multilateral initiative aimed at guaranteeing global access to covid-19 vaccines, has cut the forecast for the availability of doses for 2021 by 25%, citing export restrictions on the Serum Institute of India (SII).

According to the latest supply forecast, Covax is likely to have access to 1.425 billion doses of vaccine in 2021, in the most likely scenario. Of these doses, approximately 1.2 billion will be available for the lower-income economies participating in the COVAX Advance Market Commitment (AMC).

The reasons for the reduction in the number of doses include export restrictions, particularly with respect to uncertainty around the resumption of exports from SII, a key Covax supplier.

These issues affect the supply of Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca vaccines, being manufactured by SII in India under the brand name Covishield, it said. “The timing and likelihood of filing and regulatory approval for candidates produced by Novavax, SII-Novavax, and Clover, with WHO Emergency Use Listing (EUL) or approval by a Stringent Regulatory Authority (SRA) required for supply to COVAX participants,” the COVAX said.

There are currently 11 vaccines in the Covax portfolio. “The evolving supply landscape has led to a reduction of 25% in anticipated volumes available for supply in 2021 through COVAX. For SII-AstraZeneca and SII-Novavax, continued export restrictions from India are leading to further supply delays, with the current most likely scenario assuming no SII supply to COVAX in 2021,” Joint COVAX Statement on Supply Forecast for 2021 and early 2022.

Meanwhile, India has clarified time and again that it has not banned export of covid-19 vaccines but has calibrated shipments keeping in mind domestic requirements. During a media interaction in April this year, Arindam Bagchi, Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson had said India has not imposed any export ban on covid-19 vaccines.

A query sent to the commerce ministry remained unanswered till press time. SII too declined to comment on the issue.

Covax’s supply will continue to expand in the first quarter of 2022, reaching a total of 2.6 billion doses available for supply by the end of March. “Yet the global picture of access to covid-19 vaccines is unacceptable. Only 20% of people in low- and lower-middle-income countries have received a first dose of vaccine compared to 80% in high- and upper-middle income countries,” the statement said.

COVAX, the vaccines pillar of the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator, is co-convened by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), Gavi, and the World Health Organization (WHO), working in partnership with UNICEF, the World Bank, and others.

Asit Ranjan Misra contributed to this story