BackCovid 4th wave in India: With XE, other recombinants circulating what's in store next? Experts explain
Last month, the World Health Organisation (WHO) officials have cautioned that COVID-19 is on the rise again in many countries and there could be a dangerous ‘double effect’ of opening up too quickly.
PremiumAmid new COVID strains emerging like XE, Omicron+Delta recombinant variant, Omicron BA.2, several states have withdrawn coronavirus restrictions including the mandate of wearing a mask. And many are now questioning whether it is too early to drop the restrictions? Also, under such circumstances, are we likely to witness another 4th COVID wave? Last month, the World Health Organisation (WHO) officials have cautioned that COVID-19 is on the rise again in many countries and there could be a dangerous ‘double effect’ of opening up too quickly.
What are the recombinant viruses circulating?
A UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) study recently revealed that currently as many are 3 hybrid COVID variants are circulating. The two different combinations of Delta and BA.1 are XD and XF. The third is XE.
XD is the new name for the French Delta x BA.1 lineage. It contains the Spike protein of BA.1 and the rest of the genome from Delta. It currently comprises several 10s of sequences.
XF is a UK Delta x BA.1 lineage. It has the Spike and structural proteins from BA.1 but the 5' part of its genome from Delta. It comprises several tens of sequences currently.
XE is a large UK BA.1 x BA.2 lineage. It has the Spike and structural proteins from BA.2 but the 5' part of its genome from BA.1. It comprises several hundred sequences at present.
Can they lead the COVID 4th wave?
Earlier this year, an IIT Kanpur team had predicted that we are likely to witness the 4th COVID wave in June, which is likely to continue till October, peaking around June. The same research team had previously predicted that the third wave of the pandemic in India would peak by February 3, 2022.
However, other experts have countered the theory saying the model needs to be studied further. NITI Aayog Member (Health) V K Paul said that the IIT Kanpur study is a "valuable input" produced by eminent people. “But, it is yet to be examined whether this particular report has any scientific worth." The Centre further asserted that ‘it is completely prepared for the unpredictable virus’.
Meanwhile, virologist Dr. T Jacob John, former ICMR chief, pointed out that he is "fairly confident" that chances of another coronavirus surge is bleak “unless an unexpected variant that behaves differently comes up."
“Too early…": What experts said on relaxing COVID curbs?
With COVID situation stabilising, several states have eased all COVID norms including the wearing of the mask. Regarding the same, some experts expressed it might be too early for this.
Last week, Dr Priya Abraham, Director, ICMR-National Institute of Virology (ICMR-NIV) told ANI that masks should continue to be worn, especially in crowded or poorly ventilated places.
Meanwhile, T Jacob John said since the pandemic is "over" in India, the use of mask is no longer needed to reduce the SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The mask mandate has lived its time and there is no longer justification for its continuation as "mandate".
But it is a good idea to promote the voluntary wearing of masks in public places to reduce inhalation of dust and other respiratory transmitted agents, including TB bacilli, flu virus, other respiratory viruses like syncytial virus, adenovirus, common cold viruses etc, he said.
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