Covid pandemic has peaked in India; can be controlled by end of Feb 2021: Govt-appointed panel

The 'Covid-19 India National Supermodel' committee led by Professor M Vidyasagar (IIT Hyderabad) made the finding in its study titled 'Progression of the Covid-19 pandemic in India: Prognosis and Lockdown Impacts'.

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On 1 June, the Department of Science and Technology constituted a committee comprising of eminent scientists and academicians to evolve a national supermodel for Covid-19 progression.

Here are the landmark findings from the study:

• If all the protocols are followed than the pandemic can be controlled by early next year with minimal active symptomatic infections by February-end.
• Upcoming festival and winter season may increase the susceptibility to infection. Relaxation in protective measures can lead to a significant rise, up to 26 lakh infections within a month.

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• Pandemic has peaked, but only if sufficient protective measures continue.
• 30% population are projected to have antibodies at present, while it was 14% at the end of August.
• Cumulative mortality projected to be less than 0.04% of total infected.
• All activities can be resumed provided proper safety protocols continue to be followed.
• The committee also said that the number of Covid-related deaths by August 2020 would have been over 25 lakh if there had been no lockdown at all and also that there would have been over 1.4 crore crore symptomatic infections by June 2020.
• District-level lockdowns are not much effective now.