IMD predicts cyclone formation in next 12 hours over Arabian sea, to affect monsoon entry in Kerala
The existing depression over the southeast Arabian Sea, is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm, Biparjoy, in next twelve hours, said IMD on Tuesday
PremiumHindering the arrival of monsoon in India, the depression over the southeast Arabian Sea, is likely to move nearly northwards and transform into a cyclonic storm in next twelve hours, said the India Meteorological Department on Tuesday.
The depression was observed over the southeast Arabian Sea, south of Porbandar in Gujarat and it is likely to move northwestward and intensify into a cyclonic storm, named as Biparjoy.
The depression, lay about 920 km west-southwest of Goa, 1,120 km south-southwest of Mumbai, 1,160 km south of Porbandar, and 1,520 km south of Karachi, Pakistan, at 5:30 am, reported PTI.
Also Read: Mumbai, Konkan regions to experience rains weekend; Is this cyclone impact?
The report said that the storm is located nearly northwards and intensify into a cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours over the east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea.
On Monday, the IMD predicted the formation of the low-pressure system over the southeast Arabian Sea. The press release also presented the chances of the storm affecting the monsoon towards the Kerala coast.
The Arabian Sea's cyclone can affect the monsoon's arrival
Private weather forecasting agency, Skymet predicted the threat of cyclonic formation in the Arabian Sea to the monsoon in India. It said that the influence of Arabian Sea cyclonic formation can make it difficult for the monsoon stream to reach coastal parts and even struggle to penetrate beyond the Western Ghats.
Also Read: Bay of Bengal one of world's most active areas for cyclone formation; here's why
When will the monsoon arrive in Kerala?
The monsoon entry in Kerala has been delayed this time, and the weather department is still unclear about when the monsoon will arrive in the state. According to the private forecasting agency, Skymet Weather, the monsoon onset over Kerala will happen on June 8 or June 9 and is expected to be a “meek and mild entry," reported PTI.
Skymet had predicted the arrival of the monsoon in Kerala to be on June 7, with an error margin of three days.
"The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive within this bracket. Onset criteria require stipulated rainfall on two consecutive days over Lakshadweep, Kerala, and coastal Karnataka. Accordingly, the spread and intensity of rainfall may match these requirements on June 8 or June 9. However, the onset of the annual event may not be loud and sound. It may only make a meek and mild entry to start with," the private weather forecasting agency said.
In normal situations, monsoon sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days. In mid-May, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said monsoon might enter Kerala by June 4.
The last four years witnessed an early arrival of monsoon in Kerala. In 2022, the southeast monsoon arrived in the southern state on May 29. In 2021, it took entry on June 3, the monsoon entered on June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019, and May 29 in 2018.
Monsoon's delay in Kerala, less rainfall in India in 2023?
Scientists have assured that delayed onset over Kerala doesn't necessarily mean a delay in the arrival of monsoon in the rest of India. They have also said that it does not impact the total rainfall over the country during the season. They assured that India is expected to get normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season despite the evolving El Nino conditions.
The northwestern part of India is expected to see normal to below-normal rainfall. In the east and northeast, central and south peninsula, normal rainfall will stand at 94-106 per cent of the long-period average of 87 centimetres.
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