Cyclone Biparjoy to turn ‘very severe’, delay monsoon onset
According to IMD’s first monsoon forecast in early May, the onset over Kerala is likely to be on 4 June with an error margin of four days, while Skymet predicted 7 June with an error margin of three days.
PremiumNew Delhi: The formation of cyclonic storm Biparjoy may cause further delay in monsoon onset by two-three days, said private forecaster Skymet. The Biparjoy is anticipated to move nearly northwards during the next 24 hours and intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm.
It would then move north-north-westwards during the subsequent three days, according to the latest bulletin issued by India Meteorological Department. “The onset of Southwest monsoon is already delayed by six days and due to the development of the cyclonic storm, the arrival of monsoon over Kerala coast could be delayed by another two-three days," Mahesh Palawat, vice president Meteorology And climate Change at Skymet told Mint.
According to IMD’s first monsoon forecast in early May, the onset over Kerala is likely to be on 4 June with an error margin of four days, while Skymet predicted 7 June with an error margin of three days.
“Once the monsoon sets in over Kerala, the progress of it is seen to be slow over south peninsular and central India. The monsoon current may develop, and monsoon may intensify over the central Arabian Sea by 12 June," Palawat said.
“The monsoon is seen to be weak in south peninsular and central regions of the country due to the development of cyclonic storm Biparjoy. Hence, the monsoon is not seen promising," Palawat added
Delayed and feeble monsoon will likely cause —20% of long period average (LPA) rainfall in June, the meteorologist at Skymet informed.
“We think June could end up with —20% of LPA. the central and east regions will probably be the driest part," Jatin Singh, founder and director of Skymet, said in a tweet in the morning.
Due to the cyclonic storm Biparjoy, IMD sees high Sea condition likely prevailing over the east central Arabian Sea and adjoining west central and southeast Arabian. Sea condition is likely to be rough to very rough over the south Arabian Sea and along and off north Kerala-Karnataka-Goa coasts. Also, fishermen have been advised to not venture into the central Arabian Sea till 13 June.
IMD warned those who are out at sea to return to the coast.
The crucial southwest monsoon starts its journey into the Indian sub-continent from the Kerala coast around 1 June with a standard deviation of about seven days. Monsoon rainfall is critical for agriculture production, with 52% of the net cultivated area relying on it. It is also crucial for the replenishing of reservoirs critical for drinking water apart from power generation across the country. The agricultural sector accounts for about 18% of the economy and is the largest employer.
If monsoon is delayed, farmers in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat may go sowing kharif crops late. Maharashtra grows Soybean, Tur (arhar), Urad (black gram), Groundnut, Maize (corn) and sugarcane in the kharif season, while Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat cultivate rice, soybean, jowar, maize, groundnuts, tur and urad.
"Exciting news! Mint is now on WhatsApp Channels 🚀 Subscribe today by clicking the link and stay updated with the latest financial insights!" Click here!
