Cyclonic storm ‘Biparjoy’ may delay monsoon onset by another 2-3 days

New Delhi: Things are not looking good for India's annual rainfall season with cyclonic storm ‘Biparjoy’ likely to delay the onset of the southwest monsoon current over the Kerala coast by another two to three days, private forecaster Skymet said on Wednesday.

“The onset of southwest monsoon is already delayed by six days and due to the development of the cyclonic storm, the arrival of monsoon over Kerala coast could be delayed by another two-three days,” Mahesh Palawat, vice president, Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet told Mint.

The crucial southwest monsoon typically hits the Indian mainland by 1 June. Last month, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast forecast Kerala onset by 4 June with an error margin of four days, while private weather forecaster Skymet had predicted 7 June as the onset date with an error margin of three days.

Cyclone 'Biparjoy', the first storm to be brewing in the Arabian Sea this year, has intensified into a severe cyclonic storm.

Biparjoy, pronounced Biporjoy, is expected to move nearly northwards during the next 24 hours and intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm. It would then move north-north-westwards during the subsequent three days, according to the latest bulletin issued by the IMD.

The June-September monsoon season is crucial for Asia's third-largest as they delivers nearly 70% of annual rainfall to India, making it important for farming activities. 

A little more than half of the net cultivated area of the country is rain-fed accounting for 44% of food production, making these rains essential for India's food security.

It is also crucial for the replenishing of reservoirs critical for drinking water apart from power generation across the country. The agricultural sector accounts for about 18% of the economy and is the largest employer.

“Once the monsoon sets in over Kerala, the progress of it is seen to be slow over South Peninsular and Central India. The monsoon current may develop, and monsoon may intensify over Central Arabian Sea by 12 June,” Palawat added. “Monsoon is seen to be weak in South Peninsular and Central regions of the country due to the development of cyclonic storm Biparjoy. Hence, monsoon is not seen promising.”

Delayed rains will mean farmers in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat sow crucial kharif crops late. Maharashtra grows soybean, tur (arhar), urad (black gram), groundnut, maize (corn) and sugarcane in the kharif season, while Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat cultivate rice, soybean, jowar, maize, groundnuts, tur and urad.

Delayed and weak monsoon current will likely lead to rains totalling about 20% of long period average (LPA) in June, the meteorologist at Skymet informed.

“We think June could end up with -20% of LPA. Central and East regions will probably be the driest part,” Jatin Singh, founder and director of Skymet, said in a tweet in the morning.

Due to the Cyclonic storm ‘Biparjoy’, wind speed may reach 95-105 kmph gusting to 115 kmph over east central Arabian Sea and adjoining areas of west central and southeast Arabian Sea on Wednesday. It is likely to increase and become 125-135 kmph gusting to 155 kmph during the night of 7 June over the same area. Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is likely over adjoining areas of west central and south Arabian Sea and along and off north Kerala-Karnataka-Goa coasts, according to IMD.

The weather department expects high sea condition prevailing over east central Arabian Sea and adjoining west central and southeast Arabian. Sea condition is likely to be rough to very rough over south Arabian Sea and along and off north Kerala-Karnataka-Goa coasts. Consequently, fishermen have been advised to not venture into Central Arabian Sea till 13 June, adjoining areas of north Arabian Sea during Monday-Tuesday, adjoining areas of south Arabian Sea today. IMD has asked those out at sea to return to the coast.