Home >News >India >Deaths slow down in Madhya Pradesh, pick up in Haryana

India is now into its first week of “unlocking", with restaurants, shopping malls and places of worship opening up since Monday. But unlike several other countries that opened up only after new coronavirus cases declined, India is still struggling to contain the spread of the infection. This week, the country surpassed Spain and Italy to become the fifth worst-hit nation in the world.

As of Thursday morning, India has 286,579 coronavirus cases and 8,102 deaths. Although 11 countries have a higher toll, it is some consolation that India’s case fatality rate is lower than many, at 2.8%. The global average is 6%. India’s fatality rate had stayed at 3.2% for several weeks, but has declined over the past month.

Meanwhile, the global coronavirus case count has crossed 7.3 million, with over 415,000 deaths, and more than 3.4 million recoveries. The United States, Brazil and Russia—the three most affected countries—together have 45% of all the cases worldwide, while the US, UK and Brazil account for 47% of covid-related deaths. India has 4% of the cases and 2% of the deaths worldwide.

Though the regions with the most new deaths and cases keep shifting, it also gives a useful indication of where the situation is likely to head over the next few days. Over the past week, among the high-fatality countries, India has had the second highest growth rate in deaths and the highest rate of new infections

This week, the number of discharged patients in India went past the number of active cases for the first time. The recovery rate is now 49.2%. The doubling time for confirmed cases and deaths has remained steady at 16 and 17 days, respectively, over the past week. At its current pace, India could cross the 400,000 mark by the end of next week.

Within India, the states of Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Delhi continue to lead in terms of the number of active cases. These three states now account for 60 percent of active cases and 59 percent of fatalities.

Among states with more than 50 deaths, the toll is rising at the fastest pace in Delhi (doubling rate of eight days), Tamil Nadu (doubling rate of 11 days), and Maharashtra (doubling rate of 16 days). The doubling rate is based on the seven-day rolling averages, which help smoothen volatility effects in daily reporting and are useful to gauge trends over time. The doubling time is the highest for Madhya Pradesh (29 days).

The number of active cases in India has risen 29% over the past week, and deaths have increased 33% in the period. Among the states with the highest case-load, Haryana has reported the biggest surge in active cases (81%) and deaths (126%) in the last seven days.

Maharashtra and Gujarat, which have had the most deaths, saw their tolls rise 33% and 20% respectively since last Thursday. Delhi, where cases and deaths have risen much faster than earlier, saw fatalities jump 62% during the period. Madhya Pradesh and Bihar had a slower rate of growth in deaths as compared to previous weeks.

The states with the highest number of covid-related deaths so far are Maharashtra (3,438), Gujarat (1,347), Delhi (984), West Bengal (432) and Madhya Pradesh (427). Among the ten states with most active cases, the case fatality rates are the highest in Gujarat (6.3%), West Bengal (4.6%), and Madhya Pradesh (4.3%).

Large cities continue to be disproportionately affected by the coronavirus. Mumbai has 52,667 cases and 1,857 deaths as per the latest data. The top 15 cities in terms of population together account for 58% of confirmed cases and 68% covid-related deaths in India. Data for all cities have been aggregated from district-wise data compiled by howindialives.com, as of Wednesday evening.

Delhi, with 31,309 confirmed cases, Chennai (30,403 cases), Ahmedabad (15,739 cases), and Pune (10,247 cases) are the other major hotspots so far. These five cities account for 51% of confirmed cases and 59% of deaths nationally.

In the past week, deaths rose in Delhi, Chennai, and Mumbai by 77%, 50% and 27% respectively—the fastest increase among the metros with the highest number of fatalities. Among India's top 15 cities, the case fatality rates are the highest in Ahmedabad (7.1%), Kolkata (7%), and Jaipur (4.8%), and the lowest in Hyderabad (0.8%), Chennai (1%), and Lucknow (1.4%).

The Mint Covid Tracker runs every week in the print edition. For daily updates to the tracker, visit https://www.livemint.com/topic/mint-covid-tracker

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