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Home >News >India >Domestic air traffic to recover only by FY23-end, says Crisil

NEW DELHI : Domestic air traffic is expected to slump during FY22 compared to the pre-pandemic levels and fully recover only by fourth quarter of FY23, because of the adverse impact of the second wave of the covid-19 pandemic that has resulted in revenue losses of about 900 crore for the aviation sector, rating agency Crisil said in a report on Thursday.

The raging second wave has led to localized lockdowns, night curfews, and other restrictions on movement of people. This has led passenger traffic at airports to nosedive, with average daily domestic passenger traffic halving in May 2021 from February 2021 and dropping to about 10% of the levels seen in May 2019,before the pandemic struck, the rating agency said.

“The second wave will push back the revival of business travel and pick-up of international traffic, which account for more than half of overall traffic," said Manish Gupta, senior director, Crisil Ratings.

“Given this backdrop, we now expect traffic volumes this fiscal to be about 60% of fiscal 2020 levels and recovery to pre-pandemic levels happening only by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023," he said.

However, indicators from US and Europe are positive and exhibit faster recovery following the second wave. In US, once the infection curve started to flatten from February 2021, passenger traffic volumes climbed swiftly from less than 40% of pre-pandemic levels in February 2021 to about 70% in May 2021, the Crisil report said.

“Still the normalization in India is expected only by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023. This will lead to a revenue loss of 900 crore", instead of the earlier pre-second wave expectation of a loss of about 500 crore of revenue in fiscal 2022, it said.

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