BackNow, wind power braces for El Nino
The effects of El Nino, which occurs due to the warming of the Pacific Ocean waters, on wind power generation in India could lead to lower output amid soaring summer temperatures, driving up electricity demand
PremiumNew Delhi: The El Nino weather pattern, historically tied to droughts and reduced farm output in India, is expected to affect another critical aspect of the local economy this year: wind power generation.
The effects of El Nino, which occurs due to the warming of the Pacific Ocean waters, on wind power generation in India could lead to lower output amid soaring summer temperatures, driving up electricity demand. Wind power constitutes 10.2% of India’s total installed capacity at 42.6GW.
During El Nino, trade winds in the Pacific weaken or even reverse, and the westerlies may become dominant. The wind speed generally slows down during this period, causing warm water masses to move into the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. As sea surface temperature rises, rainfall increases along the western coast of Latin America, the Caribbean, and the US Gulf Coast while depriving India, Southeast Asia, and Australia of convective currents.
“This is going to be a bad year for wind due to the El Nino effect. Wind speeds have been slow for the last few years despite good monsoon. This will become far more evident during the historically high-wind months of June to September," said the head of one of the largest wind energy producers in India, requesting anonymity.
Mahesh Palawat of private weather forecaster Skymet predicts El Nino will be at 18% intensity in June, and the monsoon will be normal. However, he expects El Nino intensity will increase to 95% in July, followed by 92% in August and 90% in September, with its peak expected in July and likely to remain strong until September.
“El Nino will reach its peak in July and remain strong till September," said Palawat, vice president of meteorology and climate change at Skymet.
Wind power generation in India typically peaks between June and September, coinciding with the time the El Nino weather pattern will take effect. As wind speed slows down during this time, industry experts warn that power generation through wind turbines may also be affected.
Interestingly, power demand during the June-September period also remains high, although it eases from the highs reached in April-May.
Any dip in power generation would also impact the finances of wind power generating companies. An industry executive who did not want to be named said that a slowdown of wind speed due to the El Nino effect would be a “double whammy" for the industry, which is reeling under the impact of “low tariffs".
Queries mailed to the spokesperson for the ministry of new and renewable energy remained unanswered till press time.
“Formation of low pressure would slow down wind speeds during El Nino. Although the extent of the impact of El Nino on wind power generation cannot be quantified, a slowdown in wind speeds would impact the wind power generation in the country," said Hetal Gandhi, lead for energy transition at Crisil.
The Indian wind power industry last witnessed a sharp slowdown in generation in 2020 as wind speed slowed. Around two-thirds of India’s wind energy is generated during the four months to September.
“There have been fluctuations in wind power generation over the past few years. Over the last three years, many wind plants under Icra-monitored portfolio have underperformed," said Vikram V., vice president and sector head of corporate ratings, Icra.
Despite the government’s emphasis on renewable energy, wind power generation in India has not grown at the same pace as solar. The government now plans to ramp up the sector, including promoting offshore wind energy, which has not seen much development in the country. The government has scrapped the reverse auction process for wind power projects that previously led to very low tariffs to support wind power generation.
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