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Mumbai: Health workers wearing protective suits screen the residents of Koliwada during a house-to-house health survey, after detection of COVID-19 positive cases, during the nationwide lockdown, at Dharavi in Mumbai, Friday, May 8, 2020. (PTI)
Mumbai: Health workers wearing protective suits screen the residents of Koliwada during a house-to-house health survey, after detection of COVID-19 positive cases, during the nationwide lockdown, at Dharavi in Mumbai, Friday, May 8, 2020. (PTI)

Mint Covid Tracker: Fresh infections, deaths rising faster in India than most countries

Across states, the case fatality rates are lowest in Tamil Nadu (0.7%), Odisha (0.7%), and Kerala (0.8%)

The number of reported coronavirus cases in India rose 13 percent over the past two days to 59,662, data from the morning update of the ministry of health and family welfare (MoHFW) showed. This is a slightly slower rate of increase compared to the previous 48 hours, when the reported case count rose 14 percent to 52,952.

So far this week, the number of cases has gone up by 40 percent (between Monday morning and Saturday morning). This is a much faster rate of increase compared to the previous five days, when confirmed cases had risen by 29 percent.

Although India’s coronavirus trajectory has tapered since last month, it continues to be steeper compared to Asian peers such as Japan and Singapore. The rise of infections and deaths in India is now faster than in most other countries.

India’s case count is now roughly double what it was eleven days ago. This is much slower compared to early-April, when cases were doubling every four days. Deaths have also seen slower rise compared to the trend in early-April but have picked up pace over the past week. India’s death toll from covid-19 as of today morning was 1,981, roughly double what it was ten days ago.

At the current rate of compounded daily growth, the number of cases could rise to 75,000 in four days. If this trajectory continues beyond that period, it could overwhelm India’s hospital capacity and strain an already overburdened health system.

At 14,862, Maharashtra leads in terms of the number of active cases, according to the health ministry update this morning. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.

Gujarat has the second most number of active cases (5,081), followed by Tamil Nadu (4,364). At 4,230 active cases, Delhi has the fourth-highest number of active cases, followed by Madhya Pradesh (1,792). The top five states together account for 76 percent of the active cases nationally, and the top ten states account for 94 percent of all cases.

Nationally, the active case count was 39,834 as of today morning. These are early days yet and the state-wise distribution could change in the coming days as testing expands across states.

Source: MoFHW
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Source: MoFHW

Over the past seven days, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, and Delhi have seen the highest spike in cases among the top ten states with most cases. These three states account for 44 percent of all the new active cases in this period. Over the same period, fatalities have surged the most in West Bengal, Gujarat, and Rajasthan. These three states account for 34 percent of all covid-related deaths over the past seven days.

Among top ten states with most active cases, the case fatality rates are the highest in West Bengal (9.5%), Gujarat (6%), and Madhya Pradesh (6%). India’s case fatality rate now stands at 3.2%. Among all states, the case fatality rates are lowest in Tamil Nadu (0.7%), Odisha (0.7%), and Kerala (0.8%).

Over the past two days, Mumbai, Chennai, Thane, Ahmedabad and Thiruvallur (Tamil Nadu) districts have seen the biggest spike in confirmed cases nationally. These five districts account for 53 percent of new cases over this period, data compiled by howindialives.com last evening shows. Other districts that have seen a sharp spike over the past two days are Nashik (Maharashtra), Kolkata, and Bhopal.

Source: National Disaster Management Authority, state health ministries and national/ regional publications
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Source: National Disaster Management Authority, state health ministries and national/ regional publications
Source: NDMA, state health ministries and national/ regional publications
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Source: NDMA, state health ministries and national/ regional publications

So far, 519 districts have confirmed cases in the country. Mumbai (12,904 cases) has reported the most number of cases nationally among all districts, followed by Ahmedabad (4,991) in Gujarat. Chennai (3,052) in Tamil Nadu, Pune (2,269) in Maharashtra, and Thane (1,889) in Maharashtra are the other leading districts. These top five districts now account for 42 percent of confirmed cases in the country.

Indore (1,727) in Madhya Pradesh, New Delhi (1,458), Jaipur (1,131) in Rajasthan, Jodhpur (876) in Rajasthan, and Kolkata (873) in West Bengal are the other high-burden districts which figure in the list of top ten districts. The top ten districts account for 54 percent of the confirmed cases nationally.

Most of India’s hotspots so far have been urban affluent districts, with richer states hit harder than the rest.

The coronavirus case count has crossed 3.9 million globally even as several parts of the country and the world remain under lockdown to contain the pandemic.

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