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Equity markets would track global cues for further direction this week and may face volatility amid monthly derivatives expiry and rich valuations, analysts said.

The BSE Sensex made history on Friday by reaching the 60,000-mark for the first time ever. Traders are seeing hints that India’s central bank is seeking to drain record liquidity from the banking system, another sign that the global flood of pandemic-era easy money may begin to ease.

The Reserve Bank of India is increasingly shifting its forex intervention to the forwards market to keep from injecting rupee liquidity, according to traders and economists, including Madhavi Arora of Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. The monetary authority is also signaling a taper to its outright bond purchases, or even do away with them totally, from next quarter, some of them said.

A starting point could be keeping the excess liquidity in check amid huge inflows into the nation’s stocks and bond markets, traders said.

It took just eight months for the BSE benchmark to cover the journey from 50,000 in January this year to scale the unprecedented 60,000 mark for the first time on Friday. The Sensex has traversed from 1,000 points to the historic 60,000 level in a little over 31 years.

"The roaring bull market is continued in the Indian market with climbing all walls of worries where Sensex has crossed the new milestone of 60,000. We are in a classical bull market like the 2003-2007 phase where this bull run is likely to continue for the next 2-3 years," said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart.

However, he put a word of caution after a parabolic move in last few days because short-term correction cannot be ruled out in coming days.

Sharing similar sentiments, Motilal Oswal, the MD & CEO of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited said, "Given rich valuations, one cannot ignore intermittent volatility - however we expect the positive momentum to continue on the back of improving economic activity and recovery in corporate earnings."

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services said that the market is bound to track global cues for direction in a relatively quiet week for domestic economic data releases.

"The manufacturing PMI index for September which is to be released this week will help in forming a view on business activities during the month," he said. The PMI data for the manufacturing sector is scheduled on Friday.

According to a note by Samco Research, "The volatility seen in the markets last week may seep into the forthcoming week as well given the monthly expiry towards the latter half.

"Considering the increased concerns around chip shortage and the resultant dampened sales prospects, monthly sales numbers of the automobile sector are sure to grab eyeballs to determine a future trend in auto stocks."

During the last week, the 30-share benchmark rallied 1,032.58 points or 1.74 per cent.

"It's a big achievement for India that India's most sensitive index crossed the mark of 60k. In the coming month, the news flow on the corporate earnings would also help the market to rally further," Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities Ltd said.

Movement of rupee, foreign institutional investors and Brent crude would also paly a major role in deciding market trends.

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