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Business News/ News / India/  Govt likely to release fewer GDP estimates from 2024 to avoid markets confusion
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Govt likely to release fewer GDP estimates from 2024 to avoid markets confusion

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is expected to release four estimates of GDP data from next year, with the aim of boosting the quality of economic data. This is most likely to eliminate the markets confusion.

The move is also expected to minimize the time for finalizing national income estimates and give more flexibility to the Statistics Ministry for incorporating more data in its estimates.Premium
The move is also expected to minimize the time for finalizing national income estimates and give more flexibility to the Statistics Ministry for incorporating more data in its estimates.

The Indian government is likely to reduce the number of official annual gross domestic product (GDP) estimates to four releases instead of the current six estimates. This will be done in order to avoid multiple revisions that market watchers in the past have expressed as 'confusing'. At present, the National Statistics Office under MoSPI is responsible for calculating the country's GDP performance, including macroeconomic data and statistics.

From next year, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is likely to start releasing four estimates of GDP data.

People familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that the Statistics Ministry would start this from next year, the people said, asking not to be identified before a final decision is made. The proposal is being discussed between the ministries of statistics and finance as well as top officials from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government as part of a drive to boost the quality of economic data.

Further, the people explained that this will minimize the time for finalizing national income estimates to about two years from nearly three years.

Read here: Pakistan's GDP stands at 0.29% for FY23: Report

This decision is likely due to numerous controversies over India’s data with market watchers often describing the numbers as inadequate or even confusing due to sharp and unexpected revisions, as per the report.

Among key proposed changes, would be to bring forward the first annual advance estimate by a week to mid-January, alongside, skipping the second forecast in end-February. And later on, an update followed in May, and further two more annual revisions.

India's gross domestic product (GDP) came in better than expected in the fourth quarter of FY23 to 6.1%. Not just that, overall, in FY23, the growth was surprisingly higher-than-expected at 7.2%. Although, the FY23 growth rate slowed down compared to a GDP of 9.1% in FY22.

Read here: 'India shining' is baseless, says Subramanian Swamy while calling GDP figures contradictory

NSO compiles provisional and quarterly estimates of national income using the benchmark-indicator method i.e. the estimates available for the previous year referred to as the benchmark year (2021-22 in this case) are extrapolated using the relevant indicators reflecting the performance of sectors.

It is also known that the proposed changes will give more flexibility and time to Statistics Ministry for incorporating more data in its estimates --- which is expected to bring in better policymaking, particularity for the budget on February 1st, and avoiding major deviations in revisions, as per the people.

The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter April-June of 2023-24. The first quarter GDP data will be presented on August 31, 2023.

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Published: 09 Jun 2023, 07:53 PM IST
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