Gurgaon, Kolkata and Dehradun are among the new Covid hotspots

Of the 129 districts that logged more than 5,000 new cases in the past week, the district with the maximum new cases per capita was Gurugram in Haryana (11,695 new cases per million population).
Of the 129 districts that logged more than 5,000 new cases in the past week, the district with the maximum new cases per capita was Gurugram in Haryana (11,695 new cases per million population).

Summary

  • Even as the virus rages across the country, the pace of vaccination has continuously dropped over the past three weeks. This week, only 1.8 million doses were administered, 28% lower than the previous week

Even as districts in Maharashtra and Kerala continue to bear high caseloads, other parts of the country are increasingly witnessing a rapid surge in cases that threaten to overwhelm local health capacities. These districts have been a smaller part of the covid-19 conversation so far, but the spike in new infections and their large populations make them areas of concern.

Of the 129 districts that logged more than 5,000 new cases in the past week, the district with the maximum new cases per capita was Gurugram in Haryana (11,695 new cases per million population). Kolkata was ranked number six (9,494), Dehradun number nine (8,632) and Srinagar number 11 (8,355). Also in the top 20 is Kamrup Metropolitan (which includes the state capital Guwahati) in Assam (6,380) and Chandigarh (6,320). That’s six districts from five states, including two that recently finished with assembly elections, and one union territory.

These counts are likely to increase in the coming days. As covid-19 spreads beyond the big cities and traditional hotspot states, 184 districts have more cases per million population than the national average, against 156 districts a week ago. 70 of these districts are from three states: Maharashtra (27), Chhattisgarh (22) and Karnataka (21). But there are new states also on this list now such as Uttarakhand, 12 of whose 13 districts are registering per capita numbers above the national average. Or, Himachal Pradesh, where this count is 10 of 12.

Rising Fatalities

As the second wave rages across the country, deaths due to covid-19 have continued to hit new highs. Even without taking into account deaths that go unreported, the tally saw a jump of 26% since the past week. Jharkhand remained the state with the highest surge in covid-19 deaths for the second consecutive week. At 1,100 deaths this week, it has reported almost 4.3 times of what it did a fortnight ago. Ranchi, its capital, constituted a third of the deaths reported this week, amid a doubling of death numbers. Worryingly, deaths reported in Lohardaga and Garhwa districts witnessed a 4-fold and 3-fold jump, respectively, last week.

Uttarakhand and Bihar’s weekly death tally also saw sharp jumps. Lack of access to oxygen continues to haunt Delhi, even though the death curve has tapered in recent days. Maharashtra has seen a more sustained decline, while deaths continue to surge in Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka.

Vaccine Crunch

Meanwhile, the expansion in the vaccine drive has had a patchy start due to an acute shortage of vaccines. The next phase to inoculate the population above the age of 18 is yet to begin in most states, although few private hospitals have started giving limited jabs at a premium. The past three weeks have seen a continuous fall in the average number of vaccine doses given each day. This week, only 1.8 million doses were given, 28% lower than the previous week. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar lag other states with only 55 and 60 doses per 1,000 people, respectively.

Nationally, the pace of vaccination has fallen by almost 48% since the second week of April. Amid supply constraints of vaccines in the country, Ahmedabad-based pharma company, Zydus Cadila, may seek emergency authorization for its three-dose vaccine in the coming weeks. In an interview to FT, Adar Poonawalla of Serum Institute, the main vaccine supplier, said the vaccine crunch is likely to continue for two to three months.

Growth Pangs

Even as India’s covid-19 vaccine doses per capita increased marginally from 10.7 to 11.4 in the past week, its pace of vaccination continues to be on the slower side among the most-populous countries. The weekly increase in the number of doses per 100 people dropped to 7% last week, from 12% the previous week, according to data portal Our World in Data.

China has crossed the US to lead in total vaccine doses administered (285 million versus 248 million). India maintained its third position, ahead of the United Kingdom. But given its large size, it still accounts for barely a tenth of the population. Brazil, also facing the brunt of a second wave, has already vaccinated a fifth of its population with at least one dose.

Globally, there is a growing pressure to waive patent protections for covid-19 vaccines, with the US now supporting India and South Africa’s proposal on this. With a significant pharmaceutical manufacturing base, India needs to take advantage of this moment to scale up vaccine production and avert a third deadly wave.

(howindialives.com is a database and search engine for public data)

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