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Workers prepare a quarantine center (isolation center) for non-critical COVID-19 patients at the Bombay Exhibition Centre (NESCO Ground) in Goregaon during a government-imposed nationwide lockdown as a preventive measure against the COVID-19 coronavirus, in Mumbai on Wednesday. (ANI Photo)
Workers prepare a quarantine center (isolation center) for non-critical COVID-19 patients at the Bombay Exhibition Centre (NESCO Ground) in Goregaon during a government-imposed nationwide lockdown as a preventive measure against the COVID-19 coronavirus, in Mumbai on Wednesday. (ANI Photo)

Half of confirmed cases, deaths in Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Delhi, Chennai, Pune

Among India’s fifteen largest cities, Chennai and Pune have the highest doubling rate for coronavirus cases

India crossed the 50,000 mark on Thursday morning, becoming the fourteenth country to do so. India’s case count has risen a hundred-fold since the nation-wide lockdown began on March 25, when confirmed cases stood at 536. At that time, India had the 40th highest number of active cases in the world with 486 cases. Active cases have risen 73 times, with 35,902 active cases as of Thursday morning, putting India 12th in the list of countries with most active cases.

Fifteen countries in the world have reported more than 50,000 confirmed cases according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, a portal that has been consistently tracking the crisis since early this year. Among these countries, the fastest to reach the 50,000 mark from the 10,000th case was the United States. It took the United States 5 days to reach the 50,000 mark from the day the 10,000th case was recorded. Italy took 11 days for the same jump. China and Iran have taken 12 and 21 days respectively. In India’s case, it has taken 23 days from the 10,000th case to reach the 50,000 mark, the fifth fastest in the 50,000 plus group.

As of Thursday morning, the death toll was at 1,783 and the fatality rate was at 3.3 (per 100 cases). France has had the highest fatality rate (18 per 100) among the affected countries whereas Russia has had the lowest fatality rate (1) so far.

Within India, Maharashtra accounts for the maximum deaths (651 deaths), followed by Gujarat (396). Madhya Pradesh (185 deaths), West Bengal (144), Rajasthan (92) are other high-fatality states. The top five states account for 41 percent of deaths nationwide.

An analysis of the seven-day rolling averages of cases shows that the rate at which cases are doubling in the country have slowed since early-April to ten days now. The rate of doubling is slower than that of Bangladesh (8 days) but faster than that of other Asian peers such as Pakistan (11 days), Indonesia (16 days) and Japan (19 days).

Among Indian states, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Delhi have the most active cases. Among states with more than 1000 cases, the doubling rates (based on the seven-day rolling averages) are the highest for Maharashtra and Gujarat (10 days) and Uttar Pradesh (14 days).

The seven-day rolling averages help smooth volatility in daily reporting, and are useful to gauge trends over time. Only active cases (excluding deaths and recoveries) have been considered for the state-level analysis.

Kerala was one of the first states in India to have flattened its curve, and has been successful in keeping case count low. Tamil Nadu, which appeared close to bending it’s curve last week, has seen a renewed spike in infections. So have Haryana and Punjab. Karnataka, Jammu and Kashmir, and Telangana may be close to bending their corona curves, the analysis suggests.

Among cities, Mumbai in Maharashtra had the most number of cases, with nearly 10,710 confirmed cases as of Wednesday evening. The neighbouring city of Thane has 1404.

Ahmedabad is the second most affected city with 4799 confirmed cases, displacing Delhi which was at number two so far. The National Capital Territory of Delhi with 3964 cases is at third position now. Chennai in Tamil Nadu with 2690 cases, and Pune in Maharashtra with 2202 cases are the other major hotspots so far. The top five cities together account for 48 percent of confirmed cases and 53 percent of deaths nationally.

The top fifteen cities together account for 60 percent of confirmed cases and 68 percent of deaths nationally. Data for all cities have been aggregated from district-wise case data compiled by howindialives.com, as of Wednesday evening.

Over the past week, confirmed cases in Chennai rose nearly four times to 2690, the fastest increase among the top 15 cities by population. Pune also saw a major jump in cases in the seven days till Wednesday, with cases almost doubling to over two thousand. Bengaluru, Kanpur and Nagpur have relatively fewer cases compared to others at the moment.

The Mint Covid Tracker runs every week in the print edition. For daily updates to the tracker, visit https://www.livemint.com/topic/mint-covid-tracker

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