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IIT Kanpur professor Manindra Agrawal, the man behind Sutra model, who had earlier predicted that the third wave in India was likely to peak on 23 January, has pointed out ‘trajectory for the country continues at a significantly reduced scale’ and may take another day or two to hit the peak. Speaking of the states where the third wave is peaking, he said Chhattisgarh is on track and likely to peak today, while both Punjab and Gujarat are moving a little off the trajectory. “Goa trajectory is closest to predicted," he added. 

COVID third wave peak explained state-wise. Check here:

  • Tamil Nadu: Predicted to peak on 25 January.
  • Andhra Pradesh: Predicted to peak on 30 January. No deviation yet from the predicted trajectory.
  • Karnataka: Predicted to peak on 23 January. A new phase just started.
  • Gujarat: The prediction was that the peak would be on 19 January. But, Agrawal said today that it is moving a bit off the track.
  • Haryana: Predicted to peak on 20 January.
  • Assam: Predicted to peak on 26 January. No phase change yet
  • For both Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, he had predicted the peak would be on 19 January.
  • Bihar: Peak was on 16 January as it was predicted.

Third wave peak in Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru and Kolkata

Earlier this week, Agrawal had cited that the third wave have already peaked in Mumbai, Kolkata and Delhi on 12th, 13th and 15th January respectively.  

Speaking about Bengaluru in particular, he said, that the predicted peak in the city is on 22 Jan.

The COVID trajectories shifting. Here's why? 

Pointing out that the (COVID) trajectories are changing significantly, Agrawal said, ‘I speculated earlier that it is due to ICMR guidelines for changed testing strategy. However, at many places these guidelines are not yet implemented and still the trajectory has changed!’

He asserted there might two plausible reasons for this. 

First, there are two groups in population, one with less immunity against Omicron and other with more. The mutant first spread in the first group causing sharp rise. Now the first group is exhausted and so the spread is slower.

Second, There was a lot of concern when Omicron started spreading, but in the last week or so, people almost everywhere have concluded that it causes only mild infection and have decided to handle it with standard remedies instead of getting tested.

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