IMD sees normal day temperatures, warmer nights in April-June

New Delhi: India is likely to witness normal to below-normal temperatures across most parts of the country during April-June, according to the latest outlook by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Daytime heat may be less intense in some regions, but east and northeast India, along with parts of central and adjoining peninsular regions, are expected to experience above-normal daytime temperatures, raising the risk of localized heat stress, IMD said.

Scientists have indicated that the prevailing weather conditions and forecast are likely to be beneficial for wheat crop. "The current temperature patterns, climatic conditions and predictions are conducive to crop. The weather so far has remained supportive rather than harmful, which could help stabilise output levels in key growing regions," said Ratan Tiwari, director, ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research (IIWBR), Karnal.

This assumes significance, as India expects a bumper wheat production of 120.21 million tonnes in the 2026–27 rabi marketing season, up from 117.94 million tonnes a year earlier.

The IMD has warned of an above-normal number of heatwave days across large parts of east and east-central India, the southeastern peninsula, and pockets of northwest and west-central regions. Typically, India sees three to five heatwave days during April-June, but this year could see two to four additional days.

Most regions of the country are expected to experience higher-than-usual heatwave days, including Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, West Bengal, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, coastal Tamil Nadu, and northern parts of Karnataka during the April-June period.

Hotter than normal

Minimum temperatures are projected to remain above normal across most of India, pointing to warmer nights during the season.

"During the season, above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except some regions of Maharashtra and Telangana, where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely," said Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD. Such conditions could reduce nighttime cooling and add to overall heat discomfort.

During April, monthly maximum temperatures are likely to be normal to below normal over many parts of the country. However, above-normal maximum temperatures are expected over many parts of east and northeast India and some parts of northwest India and southern peninsular India.

While wheat may benefit, other crops face downside risks. According to agricultural assessments by IMD, intense heat stress during critical reproductive stages may affect key crops such as boro rice, maize, green gram, black gram, and vegetables like tomato, chilli, and brinjal. This could lead to poor grain formation, flower drop, and lower yields, particularly in eastern, northeastern, northwestern, and southern peninsular regions.

Chickpea, and lentil crops are expected to mature faster due to rising temperatures, shortening the grain-filling period and reducing productivity in eastern and east-central parts of the country.

Horticulture crops are also at risk, with reduced fruit setting and increased flower drop reported in mango and banana plantations, especially in southern regions.

"Additionally, rapid soil moisture depletion due to high evapotranspiration rates is likely to stress standing crops, intensifying irrigation demands," IMD said. Experts warn that timely interventions and adaptive measures will be crucial to mitigate potential losses.