IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall for India in July

India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall in July, at less than 94% of the long-period average (LPA), according to the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) latest monthly outlook.

The forecast follows India's driest June in more than a decade, and the fifth-driest since records began in 1901, with south-west monsoon rainfall 39.8% below the LPA. The country received 99.5mm of rainfall during the month, compared with the normal of 165.3mm.

The IMD on 29 May revised its south-west monsoon forecast for 2026 to 90% of the LPA, down from its earlier estimate of 92%, due to El Niño conditions. The LPA for the June-September season, based on the 1971-2020 climatological record, is 87cm. The country saw below-normal monsoon last in 2023, when rainfall stood at 95% of the LPA.

The latest forecast suggests that rainfall will remain below normal across most parts of the country. However, some areas of North-West and North-East India, East-Central India and the eastern peninsular region are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

Warmer-than-usual summer

The weather department has also projected warmer-than-normal conditions across much of the country during July. Maximum temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most parts of the country, except for a few isolated pockets of West-Central India, where daytime temperatures are likely to be normal to below normal.

Weak El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) and other global climate models indicate that these conditions are likely to strengthen further during the season, the IMD said.

“Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are being observed over the Indian Ocean. The model forecast indicates that neutral IOD conditions are likely to persist during the season,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD.

The combination of below-normal rainfall and higher temperatures could increase heat stress in several regions and may affect soil moisture, particularly in rain-fed agricultural areas, according to experts.

“The forecast of deficient rainfall is likely to raise farmers' cost of cultivation as they may have to rely more on irrigation. It could also prompt a shift towards less water-intensive or short-duration crops to reduce weather-related risks during the kharif season,” said Sudhir Panwar, an agriculture expert and former member of Uttar Pradesh Planning Commission.

Impact on growth

The country remains heavily dependent on the south-west monsoon, which accounts for more than 70% of its annual precipitation. With only about 55% of the country's net sown area irrigated, the rest depends on rainfall.

A good monsoon supports the farm economy and lifts rural demand, benefiting sectors such as two-wheelers, tractors and packaged consumer goods, where volumes typically rise 10-12% in favourable years, according to industry estimates. Conversely, weak rains can weigh on rural consumption.

“A below-normal rainfall pattern could delay kharif sowing and weigh on crop yields, potentially resulting in lower output. A weaker harvest may, in turn, dampen rural demand, particularly for fast-moving consumer goods and consumer durables,” said Neeraj Hatekar, economist and former professor at the University of Mumbai.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its 5 June monetary policy statement, projected consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation at 5.1% for 2026-27, while cautioning that the outlook is subject to upside risks from global supply chain disruptions and uncertainty over the spatial and temporal distribution of the monsoon.

However, it said adequate foodgrain stocks and satisfactory reservoir levels provide some comfort.

The central bank also projected real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.6% for FY27, while warning that weather-related shocks could weigh on agricultural activity, rural demand and inflation.

It added that prolonged global supply chain disruptions and heightened volatility in financial markets remain key downside risks to the growth outlook.

Meanwhile, India's retail inflation accelerated to 3.93% in May from 3.48% in April, according to provisional data released by the ministry of statistics and programme implementation on 12 June. Food inflation, a key component of the CPI, rose to 4.78% from 4.20% in April, while housing inflation eased marginally to 2.12% from 2.15%.