IMD predicts above normal monsoons this year due to La Nina effect

  • The average rainfall this monsoon season is expected to be 103% of the long period average, IMD said

Livemint
Updated31 May 2022
This is the 4th consecutive year when the country is likely to experience a normal monsoon, IMD said
This is the 4th consecutive year when the country is likely to experience a normal monsoon, IMD said

India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall this monsoon season under the La Nina conditions, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. This raises hopes for a bumper farm output and reining in inflation. "The average rainfall this monsoon season is expected to be 103% of the long period average," an official conveyed to the news agency PTI. This is the 4th consecutive year when the country is likely to experience a normal monsoon. Earlier, India had witnessed a normal monsoon from 2005-08 and 2010-13.

What is the predicted rainfall distributions across the states? 

In April, the IMD had said the country would receive normal rainfall -- 99% of the long period average (LPA), which is the mean rainfall received over a 50-year-period from 1971-2020. The LPA for the entire country is 87 cm, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.

The monsoon core zone which is highly dependent on rainfall for agriculture is set to experience above normal rainfall at more than 106% of the long period average, the official further mentioned. 

Central India and south peninsula are set to receive above-normal rainfall, while the north-east and north-west regions are likely to get normal rains.

Regarding hasty declaration on monsoons in Kerala, the official clarified, 70% of the weather stations in Kerala had reported fairly widespread rainfall and other parameters related to strong westerly winds and cloud formation over the region were fulfilled.

Will India see a normal monsoon in the coming days? 

The IMD official explained that in the near future, India could witness normal monsoons as the period of below-normal rains was nearing its end. "We are now moving towards a normal monsoon epoch," he said.

What is La Nina effect?

La Nina conditions refer to the cooling of the equatorial Pacific region. It is likely to continue till  August and augur well for the monsoon rains in India.

However, the possibility of development of negative Indian Ocean Dipole, which refers to cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean, could lead to below normal rainfall in extreme southwestern peninsula that includes Kerala.

Most parts of the country, barring J&K, Ladakh, Uttarakhand and Arunachal Pradesh, are expected to experience below normal maximum temperatures in June, Mohapatra said.

(With inputs from agencies)

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