In Bihar, a battle between the old guard and the new

It would seem that Bihar may well shake things up politically this time around. There are a number of similarities in the three young people who are making news in the upcoming election in the state. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)’s Tejashwi Yadav, leader of the largest Opposition alliance and its chief ministerial candidate, is only 30 years old. His father, the inimitable Lalu Prasad, is in prison. Tejashwi has held his own under pressure from the other coalition partners. When he was unable to come to an understanding with Mukesh Sahani, the leader of the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), Tejashwi sidelined him.

It’s a different matter that Mukesh Sahani was able to join the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) giving his party 11 seats from its quota. In effect, Sahani has been able to increase his political base much like Upendra Kushwaha of the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party.

Sahani broke away from the mahagantbandhan (grand alliance), but Chirag Paswan continues to be part of the ruling coalition in New Delhi while his Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) will field its candidates against the Janata Dal (United), the biggest NDA partner in Bihar. He has announced that this party will contest 143 seats.

The question is whether his party actually has so many candidates. The answer would seem to be that he will field BJP candidates such as Rameshwar Chaurasia and Rajendra Singh on his party symbol. It is likely that other leaders may join him too. Chirag has displayed courage by deciding to go it alone. There is speculation that the BJP is working with him behind the scenes.

Let us take a look at the LJP’s candidates declared so far. The 42 candidates revealed so far will not be fighting the BJP but the JD(U). The six candidates put forward by Jiten Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), part of the NDA, will also be targeted. Meanwhile, another coalition has emerged in Bihar, which could give the RJD-led grand alliance some sleepless nights. Dissatisfied with the RJD, Upendra Kushwaha has framed a strategy with Mayawati, Asaduddin Owaisi and former Union minister Devendra Prasad Yadav. Twenty-six of his candidates will contest against the RJD. This has become a political game of strikes and counter-strikes.

Another party has come into the fray with its leader having declared herself as a potential chief minister. Pushpampriya Chaudhary, a post-graduate in public administration from the London School of Economics, is handing out tickets solely to young and educated people. Chaudhary and her female workers are seeking “khoinchha” which is a symbol of a happy and prosperous future in the rural traditions of Bihar. They are also asking voters questions related to their daily needs in order to find out pain points.

Look at the background of these young Turks. Except for Pushpampriya Chaudhary, Tejashwi, Chirag and Mukesh Sahani are symbols of the next generation of social engineering which began with the Mandal Commission recommendations. They are from what can now be considered privileged backgrounds. Sahani has come into politics leaving his business in Mumbai, but Chirag and Tejashwi are inheritors. It remains to be seen how far they can carry their legacies.

All of them have to face Nitish Kumar whose commitment to Bihar cannot be questioned. Aside from a few gaps, he has ruled Bihar for about 15 years. During this time, he has given 50% reservation for women in panchayats and local bodies. He has reserved 35% of jobs for women in government departments. Girls were given free bicycles to enable them to go to school. And to top it all, he has enforced prohibition in the state. He has made landmark decisions on roads, agriculture, rural electrification, the water-on-tap scheme and student credit card schemes, all of which have set him apart from the common and garden politician.

But he has not been able to increase his state’s gross domestic product significantly. He has not been able to expand industrialization. As a result, unemployment figures in Bihar are high. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, the unemployment rate increased from 4.4% in January 2016 to 46.6% in April 2020 when the lockdown was in force. These are figures which can be used against him.

So, Bihar’s fortunes are up in the air. Will Nitish Kumar be able to pull it off yet again? Or come November, will the young people in the fray change the political landscape?

Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan

The views expressed are personal