India, China to engage in dialogue on Monday to resolve border row

NEW DELHI: India and China will sit down for the seventh round of military talks on Monday in another attempt to work out steps to preserve an uneasy truce amid unprecedented tensions on the border between the two countries.

According to analysts, expectations of a “breakthrough” were low with doubts over what could constitute a “breakthrough in the current circumstances, seen as a state of unprecedented tensions in decades. The thinking in some quarters was that a “breakthrough” would mean a restoration of status quo ante – ie China vacate the areas the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) intruded into in May. Another view in New Delhi was that a restoration of status quo would mean India move back from some strategic positions it had taken in Ladakh on the banks of the Pangoing Tso lake surprising the Chinese.

The Indian delegation to the Monday talks will be headed by Lt General Harinder Singh of the Indian Army’s 14 Corps based in Leh that overseas the security of the Ladakh sector. The discussions, to take place in Chushul on the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), will include Lt General P.G.K. Menon who is expected to take over from Singh this month. The Indian delegation will also have senior diplomat in charge of the China desk, Naveen Srivastava, who was part of the team for discussions with the Chinese on 21 September in Moldo.

"I don’t expect any breathrough in these talks,” said Srikanth Kondapalli, a professor of Chinese Studies at the New Delhi based Jawaharlal Nehru University. He added that his expectations were “low” from this round of talks. India’s objective would be to see that an “uneasy calm” that in place since early September could be preserved. With winter approaching, there was a small window that China could exploit to make any moves to surprise New Delhi and change the existing situation to their advantage. This would be something India would be seeking to prevent, he said. “Both sides are preparing for the long haul,” he said referring to the preparations made by India and China to keep on the frontlines.

The India-China talks on Monday coincide with the US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun's visit to New Delhi. The three day visit starts Monday. “Building on Secretary Pompeo’s October 6 meeting with Indian Minister of External Affairs

S. Jaishankar and ahead of the U.S.-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue later this year, Deputy Secretary Biegun’s engagements in India will focus on advancing the United States-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership and how the United States and India can work together to advance peace, prosperity, and security in the Indo-Pacific and around the globe,” a US State Department statement said last week.

The visit follows close on the heels of a meeting of the so called “Quad” group of countries – the US, Australia, India and Japan -- on 6 October in Tokyo. The meeting saw the US call out Chinese aggression in the region – including the South China Sea and on the India-China border. India, Japan and Australia were however more circumspect in their comments – not naming China while talking of respect for sovereignty, freedom of navigation and resilient supply chains.

According to people familiar with the developments, the India-US “2+2” talks – ie between the foreign and defence ministers – is expected to focus on consolidating India-US relations but China would be a major talking point in the context of geo-political challenges that the US and India face. Indian and US officials and leaders have had many conversations on the phone since the start of the covid-19 pandemic as well as the spike of tensions between India and China.