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Mint Covid Tracker: India curve continues to rise, could hit 300,000 cases in a week

Mumbai: Workers carry material to build a quarantine and hospital facility for treating critical COVID-19 patients, at RTO Kandarpada in Mumbai, Thursday, June 4, 2020. Reportedly, the center is set to be fully air-conditioned and will accomodate 250 beds with ICU's and dialysis facilities. (PTI Photo) (PTI)Premium
Mumbai: Workers carry material to build a quarantine and hospital facility for treating critical COVID-19 patients, at RTO Kandarpada in Mumbai, Thursday, June 4, 2020. Reportedly, the center is set to be fully air-conditioned and will accomodate 250 beds with ICU's and dialysis facilities. (PTI Photo) (PTI)

The death count in Mumbai is now close to 1,500, while that in Ahmedabad is now 938

The number of reported coronavirus cases in India rose 9 percent over the last two days to 226,770, latest data from the ministry of health and family welfare (MoHFW) showed. This is in line with the jump in the previous 48-hour period.

The death toll has reached 6,348, also rising 9 percent over the last two days, quicker than the 8 percent growth in the preceding 48 hours.

This week so far, the deaths have risen 18 percent, and the number of cases 19 percent.

The death count in India has nearly doubled in the last seventeen days. The number of infections is now twice what it was fifteen days ago, and given the rate of growth in this period, could hit the 300,000-mark by next Thursday.

The continuing rise in cases poses a severe challenge for India’s strained medical capacity and overburdened health system.

Despite a much slower case doubling rate than earlier in the outbreak, new infections and deaths are now rising faster in India than in most other badly-hit countries. Among countries with death counts greater than 4,000, India has recorded the second fastest increase in confirmed cases and the second biggest jump in deaths over the past week.

At 2,710 deaths, Maharashtra has the highest toll in the country so far due to covid-19, followed by Gujarat (1,155), Delhi (650), Madhya Pradesh (377), and West Bengal (355). These five states have recorded 83 percent of all covid-related deaths in India so far. Deaths have surged the most in Delhi, Bihar, and Tamil Nadu in the last seven days.

The case fatality rates vary widely. At 6.2 percent, Gujarat has the worst fatality rate, followed by West Bengal, where 5.2 percent of those who tested positive for coronavirus have died. Madhya Pradesh is next with 4.3 percent. India’s case fatality rate is now 2.8 percent. Among all states that have had deaths, the case fatality rates are the lowest in Assam (0.2%), Chhattisgarh (0.3%), and Odisha (0.3%).

It is worth noting that data quality on cases and deaths vary across countries and regions because of factors such as differences in testing standards, and in protocols being followed for recording covid-related deaths.

Maharashtra has 41,402 patients still under treatment, the most in the country, followed by Delhi with 14,456 and Tamil Nadu with 12,134 active cases. Gujarat is fourth on the list with 4,762 active cases and West Bengal fifth with 3,753 cases. Out of the 110,960 active cases in India as of Friday morning, the top five states together have 69 percent and the top ten states account for 81 percent. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases. As many as 109,462 patients have now been discharged in India.

Among the ten states with most active cases, Delhi, Karnataka, and West Bengal have seen the highest percentage spike over the past seven days.

Among districts, Mumbai, Chennai, Thane, Pune, and Ahmedabad have seen the biggest jump in confirmed cases in the last two days. These five districts account for 45 percent of the new cases over this period, data compiled by howindialives.com last evening shows. Other districts that have seen a sharp spike over the past two days are Gurugram in Haryana, Kancheepuram in Tamil Nadu, and Hyderabad in Telangana.

Source: MoHFW, state health ministries, national/ regional publications
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Source: MoHFW, state health ministries, national/ regional publications
Source: NDMA, state health ministries, national/ regional publications
View Full Image
Source: NDMA, state health ministries, national/ regional publications

So far, 310 districts have had deaths in the country. Mumbai (1,465 deaths) has reported the most deaths among all districts, followed by Ahmedabad (938) in Gujarat, Pune (373) and Thane (271) in Maharashtra, and Kolkata (234) in West Bengal. These five districts now account for 58 percent of deaths in the country.

Chennai (175) in Tamil Nadu, Indore (144) in Madhya Pradesh, Jaipur (101) in Rajasthan, Jalgaon (95) in Maharashtra, and Surat (74) in Gujarat are the other districts with the highest tolls. The top ten districts account for 69 percent of all the deaths nationally. District-wise data for Delhi are unavailable and hence not part of this list.

The number of coronavirus infections is likely to keep increasing in the coming days, as India’s testing numbers continue to grow. According to the Indian Council for Medical Research, over 43.86 lakh samples have been tested so far, including 1.44 lakh in the past 24 hours.

Meanwhile, the global coronavirus case count has crossed 6.6 million, with over 390,000 deaths, and more than 2.8 million recoveries.

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