IMD cuts southwest monsoon forecast to 90% of normal as El Nino risks build

NEW DELHI: India is heading into the 2026 southwest monsoon with weaker rainfall prospects, after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday trimmed its forecast and flagged an emerging El Niño pattern that could weigh on agriculture, rural demand, and inflation.

The revised outlook projects seasonal rainfall at 90% of the long period average (LPA), down from 92% earlier, indicating a below-normal monsoon for June-September 2026. The long period average, based on data from 1971-2020, is 87 cm. The last below-normal monsoon was in 2023, also an El Niño year, when rainfall was at 95% of average.

"The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%, indicating that below normal rainfall is most likely over the country as a whole during the monsoon season (June to September), 2026," said M Ravichandran, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).

The downgrade comes as climate signals turn less favourable.

“Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are transitioning towards El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest climate model forecasts indicate that the El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, IMD.

El Niño is a climatic pattern marked by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically occurring every 2-7 years and lasting 9-12 months, with implications for global weather patterns, including India’s monsoon.

Rainfall distribution is also expected to be uneven. Rains are likely to be normal over Northeast India (94–106% of LPA), but below normal in Central and South Peninsular India (<94%) and Northwest India (<92%). The monsoon core zone (MCZ), which covers most rainfed agricultural regions, is also projected to receive below-normal rainfall.

That raises immediate risks for kharif sowing, reservoir replenishment and rural consumption, in a country where nearly half the cultivated area depends on rainfall. Only about 55% of India’s net sown area is irrigated, leaving the rest exposed to monsoon variability.

“This is worrying. While it is unlikely to impact food security as we have sufficient stocks, it will affect livelihoods in regions that are dependent on rainfall,” said Ajay Vir Jakhar, chairman, Bharat Krishak Samaj, a farmers' forum.

Inflation risks

The ripple effects extend beyond farms. In an 8 April report, the Reserve Bank of India warned that weak monsoon conditions, alongside elevated energy prices from the West Asia conflict, pose upside risks to inflation. It has projected retail inflation at 4.6% for FY27.

The Department of Economic Affairs, in its April bulletin, also flagged concerns that a below-normal and uneven monsoon underscores the urgency of getting agricultural and water policy responses right.

IMD added that the monsoon is likely to reach the Kerala coast within the next seven days, after earlier indicating an onset around 26 May with a margin of four days on either side. Last year, it hit Kerala on 24 May, about eight days ahead of the normal onset date of 1 June.

Growth impact

India remains heavily dependent on the monsoon, which delivers more than 70% of annual rainfall. A strong season typically lifts rural demand and supports consumption, particularly in sectors such as two-wheelers, tractors and fast-moving consumer goods, which see volume gains of 10-12% in good monsoon years, according to industry estimates.

Economists estimate that a strong monsoon can add 20-40 basis points to GDP growth, currently projected at around 6.5-6.8% for FY27 by the Reserve Bank of India and multilateral agencies including the International Monetary Fund.

Growth forecasts have already moderated this year amid headwinds from the West Asia conflict, which has pushed up energy costs and inflation risks. The RBI pegs FY27 growth at 6.9%, a view shared by the Asian Development Bank, while the World Bank estimates 6.6%.

Retail inflation rose to 3.48% in April, a 13-month high, driven by higher prices in food, clothing, housing and utilities, according to the ministry of statistics and programme implementation. Food inflation, a key component of the CPI basket, rose to 4.20% from 3.87% in March.

The weather outlook now adds a new variable for food prices, which are already sensitive to supply shocks. Rural demand, which has lagged urban consumption in recent quarters, is expected to grow 6-7% in FY27, up from 3-4% last year, according to brokerage estimates. But that recovery remains closely tied to the strength and distribution of the monsoon.