India is likely to get average monsoon rains this year, Skymet said today, raising prospects of higher farm and economic growth in the country.
Monsoon rains are expected to be 103% of a long-term average, and there is a 60% chance that India will get average rainfall, Skymet said.
Skymet expects the upcoming monsoon rains to be ‘healthy normal’ to the tune of 103% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 880.6mm for the 4-month period from June to September.
However, Skymet forecasted that the plains of North India along with few parts of the Northeast region are likely to be at risk of being rain deficient through the season. Also, interior parts of Karnataka face the scare of scanty rains in the core monsoon months of July and August. The onset month of June and the withdrawal phase of September is assuring good countrywide rainfall distribution.
Yogesh Patil, CEO, Skymet said, “La Nina conditions prevailing in the Pacific Ocean since last year presage softening and are expected to remain neutral through the monsoon season. ENSO continue to wield a spike mid-way through the season suggesting a fresh phase of cooling, albeit marginal, over the Central Pacific Ocean. Therefore, the occurrence of El Nino which normally corrupts the monsoon is ruled out”.
On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follows:
June - 106% of LPA (LPA for June = 166.9 mm)
• 20% chance of above normal
• 10% chance of below normal
July - 97% of LPA (LPA for July = 285.3 mm)
• 10% chance of above normal
• 15% chance of below normal
August - 99% of LPA (LPA for August = 258.2 mm)
• 10% chance of above normal
• 10% chance of below normal
September - 116% of LPA (LPA for September = 170.2 mm)
• 60% chance of above normal
• 10% chance of below normal
India defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 88 centimetres for the entire four-month season beginning June.
India Meteorological Department will announce its annual monsoon forecast later this month.
